Asian indices:
- The Australian ASX 200 index fell -68.2 points (-1.04%) and is currently trading at 6,486.80
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell -591.48 points (-2.24%) and is currently trading at 25,830.57
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell -53.1 points (-0.31%) and is currently trading at 17,112.77
- The Chinese A50 index fell -40.71 points (-0.31%) and is currently trading at 12,915.58
UK and Europe:
- UK FTSE 100 futures are currently down -12 points (-0.17%), the spot market is currently estimated at 6,869.59
- Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently down -1 point (-0.03%), spot market is currently estimated to open at 3,278.04
- German DAX futures are currently down -23 points (-0.19%), the spot market is currently estimated at 11,952.55
US Futures Contracts:
- DJI futures are currently down -59 points (-0.2%)
- S&P 500 futures are currently down -2.25 points (-0.02%)
- Nasdaq 100 futures are currently down -2.5 points (-0.07%)
China’s service sector is faltering
China’s manufacturing sectors grew at a snail’s pace in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). But this is the first month in three (or the second in seven) that the sector has not contracted. Meanwhile, the Caixin survey – which is conducted privately – fell to a 4-month low of 48.1 to show contraction. Additionally, the NBS services PMI barely rose to 50.6, showing further deterioration for the world’s second-largest economy.
USD/CNH rallied comfortably above 0.7100 after the data, but has since returned about half of the day’s gains. The pair remains in a corrective phase after the dollar began to weaken earlier this week, and the PBOC came out in support of the yuan.
The USD is currently the strongest major currency while the CAD, AUD and NZD are the weakest.
US inflation is the top concern for traders today
UK GDP is released at 07:00 BST and is expected to contract -0.1% q/q, which would be its first contraction since Q3 2021. And we may have to get used to the GDP contraction with the new budget government backed despite market backlash.
German retail sales are expected to contract as expected, as inflation rose 10% year-on-year from 9.4% expected yesterday. Inflation and employment data are released for the Eurozone at 10:00 a.m. and a member of the ECB speaks at 12:00 p.m.
But the main focus for traders is the Fed’s preferred inflation print – core PCE – at 1:30 p.m. Core PCE is expected to have risen 0.5% in September from 0.1% previously. Any sign of below-expected inflation would be seen as a win, weigh on the dollar and likely support stocks. But if a short position in the EUR/USD has a chance, the ideal scenario is weaker inflation for the Euro combined with a stronger CPI for the United States.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart:
EUR/USD is in a 3 wave retracement against its downtrend. The rally found resistance to 9/11e low, monthly S1 pivot point, 50% retracement level and 100 bar EMA and a small bearish hammer has formed. So maybe there is potential for a high swing. To move into a bearish bias, we would like to see a series of reversal candles or a prominent bearish engulfing/outer candle to assume a swing high. A break above 0.9862 suggests continued bullishness.
FTSE 350 – Market Internals:
FTSE 350: 3779.32 (-1.77%) September 29, 2022
- 32 (9.12%) shares rose and 316 (90.03%) fell
- 1 stocks hit a new 52-week high, 97 fell to new lows
- 13.68% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
- 78.92% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
- 0% of stocks closed above their 20-day average
Outperformers:
- +9.43% – HICL Infrastructure PLC (HICL.L)
- +3.96% – PureTech Health PLC (PRTC.L)
- +3.05% – Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC.L)
Underperformers:
- -34.75% – Synthomer PLC (SYNTS.L)
- -14.74% – Mitchells & Butlers PLC (MAB.L)
- -12.76% – Barratt Developments PLC (BDEV.L)
Upcoming economic events (Times in BST)
How to trade with FOREX.com
Follow these simple steps to start trading with FOREX.com today:
- Open a Forex.com accountWhere connection if you are already a customer.
- Find the pair you want to trade on our award-winning platform.
- Choose your position and size, as well as your stop and limit levels.
- Place the trade.
Asian indices:
- The Australian ASX 200 index fell -68.2 points (-1.04%) and is currently trading at 6,486.80
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell -591.48 points (-2.24%) and is currently trading at 25,830.57
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell -53.1 points (-0.31%) and is currently trading at 17,112.77
- The Chinese A50 index fell -40.71 points (-0.31%) and is currently trading at 12,915.58
UK and Europe:
- UK FTSE 100 futures are currently down -12 points (-0.17%), the spot market is currently estimated at 6,869.59
- Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently down -1 point (-0.03%), spot market is currently estimated to open at 3,278.04
- German DAX futures are currently down -23 points (-0.19%), the spot market is currently estimated at 11,952.55
US Futures Contracts:
- DJI futures are currently down -59 points (-0.2%)
- S&P 500 futures are currently down -2.25 points (-0.02%)
- Nasdaq 100 futures are currently down -2.5 points (-0.07%)
China’s service sector is faltering
China’s manufacturing sectors grew at a snail’s pace in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). But this is the first month in three (or the second in seven) that the sector has not contracted. Meanwhile, the Caixin survey – which is conducted privately – fell to a 4-month low of 48.1 to show contraction. Additionally, the NBS services PMI barely rose to 50.6, showing further deterioration for the world’s second-largest economy.
USD/CNH rallied comfortably above 0.7100 after the data, but has since returned about half of the day’s gains. The pair remains in a corrective phase after the dollar began to weaken earlier this week, and the PBOC came out in support of the yuan.
The USD is currently the strongest major currency while the CAD, AUD and NZD are the weakest.
US inflation is the top concern for traders today
UK GDP is released at 07:00 BST and is expected to contract -0.1% q/q, which would be its first contraction since Q3 2021. And we may have to get used to the GDP contraction with the new budget government backed despite market backlash.
German retail sales are expected to contract as expected, as inflation rose 10% year-on-year from 9.4% expected yesterday. Inflation and employment data are released for the Eurozone at 10:00 a.m. and a member of the ECB speaks at 12:00 p.m.
But the main focus for traders is the Fed’s preferred inflation print – core PCE – at 1:30 p.m. Core PCE is expected to have risen 0.5% in September from 0.1% previously. Any sign of below-expected inflation would be seen as a win, weigh on the dollar and likely support stocks. But if a short position in the EUR/USD has a chance, the ideal scenario is weaker inflation for the Euro combined with a stronger CPI for the United States.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart:
EUR/USD is in a 3 wave retracement against its downtrend. The rally found resistance to 9/11e low, monthly S1 pivot point, 50% retracement level and 100 bar EMA and a small bearish hammer has formed. So maybe there is potential for a high swing. To move into a bearish bias, we would like to see a series of reversal candles or a prominent bearish engulfing/outer candle to assume a swing high. A break above 0.9862 suggests continued bullishness.
FTSE 350 – Market Internals:
FTSE 350: 3779.32 (-1.77%) September 29, 2022
- 32 (9.12%) shares rose and 316 (90.03%) fell
- 1 stocks hit a new 52-week high, 97 fell to new lows
- 13.68% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
- 78.92% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
- 0% of stocks closed above their 20-day average
Outperformers:
- +9.43% – HICL Infrastructure PLC (HICL.L)
- +3.96% – PureTech Health PLC (PRTC.L)
- +3.05% – Diversified Energy Company PLC (DEC.L)
Underperformers:
- -34.75% – Synthomer PLC (SYNTS.L)
- -14.74% – Mitchells & Butlers PLC (MAB.L)
- -12.76% – Barratt Developments PLC (BDEV.L)
Upcoming economic events (Times in BST)
How to trade with FOREX.com
Follow these simple steps to start trading with FOREX.com today:
- Open a Forex.com accountWhere connection if you are already a customer.
- Find the pair you want to trade on our award-winning platform.
- Choose your position and size, as well as your stop and limit levels.
- Place the trade.