Tim Clayton / Corbis via Getty Images. Pictured: Leo Messi.
The Champions League first round saw some crazy upheaval and Europe’s elite clubs established their dominance.
Here are some highlights of what we saw:
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- Bayern Munich started their title defense with a 4-0 dominance over Atletico Madrid, who are one of the best defensive teams in Europe.
- Manchester United managed a 2-1 road loss to French champions PSG behind an 87th-minute winner Marcus Rashford.
- Real Madrid were upset by Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk, 3-2, at home.
- Juventus, Liverpool, Barcelona and Manchester City all went about business and took three points from their respective opener.
For the second round we have very few ‘big’ matches, but there are still some really interesting matches to come this week.
If you want to know more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals template, you can read more here.
For the Champions League, my projections take into account the UEFA coefficients for each country represented in the competition. The projections also take into account the talent of each team based on their total transfer value in the transfer market. In this way, projections can reflect the strength of the domestic league in which each club plays and the talent level of each club.
You can use these projections to identify the early bet value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network app to see all the bets I make during the week.
Note: These projections do not take injuries into account. The injury news highlighted below is for players who would start regularly in each team’s starting XI:
Tuesday matches
Notes for Tuesday’s games:
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- Borussia Monchengladbach v Real Madrid: Los Blancos will have to bounce back from their loss in the opener. They beat their fierce opponents Barcelona in La Liga this weekend to end their two-game losing streak. Gladbach was in the 90th minute of Romelu Lukaku’s equalizer to beat Inter Milan on the road in their first group game. Gladbach had an expected goal differential of +18.88 at home in the Bundesliga last season, second behind Bayern Munich.
- Atalanta vs. Ajax: If you are looking for goals, this game is for you. Atalanta were the best team in Europe last season with 2.58 goals per game. Ajax lost to Liverpool in their first Champions League game, but took their frustration out in Eredivisie this weekend, scoring 13 goals – yes, 13 – in a win over Venlo.
Tuesday injury news:
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- Lokomotiv Moscow: Dmitri Barinov (CM) East outside against Bayern Munich.
- Inter: Alexis Sanchez (ST) and Stefano Sensi (CM) are doubtful play against Shakhtar.
- Manchester City: Gabriel Jesus (ST), Aymeric Laporte (CB) and Benjamin Mendy (LB) are outside against Marseille.
- Bayern Munich: Alponso Davies (LB) and Image ID: Serge Gnarby (RM) are outside against Lokomotiv Moscow.
- Atletico Madrid: Diego Costa (ST), Saul Niguez (CM) and Sime Vrsaljko (RB) are outside against Salzburg.
- Liverpool: Virgil van Dijk (CB), Thiago (CM) and Joël Matip (CB) are outside against Midtjylland.
Wednesday matches
Wednesday’s injury news:
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- Manchester United v RB Leipzig: Manchester United will look to extend their unbeaten streak to five matches in all competitions. The Red Devils were involved in a 0-0 snooze fest against Chelsea in the Premier League on Saturday. RB Leipzig have won five of their opening six matches in all competitions by a combined score of 14-3.
- Juventus vs Barcelona: Messi’s reunion against Ronaldo was ruined due to Ronaldo testing positive a second time for COVID-19. Barcelona lost to rivals Real Madrid at home in La Liga this weekend, while Juventus were unable to draw Hellas Verona in Serie A.
Tuesday injury news:
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- Juventus: Cristiano Ronaldo (CF) East doubtful due to several positive COVID-19 tests.
- Zenit: Malcom (CAM) East doubtful face Dortmund
- PSG: Mauro Icardi (ST), Juan Bernat (LB) and Thilo Kehrer (CB) are outside against Istanbul.
- Barcelona: Philippe Coutinho (CAM) and Marc-André ter Stegen (GK) are outside against Juventus.
- Club Brugge: Simon Mignolet (GK), Simon Deli (CB) and Michael Krmencik (ST) are outside against Lazio.