RUSSIA’S BLOOD the war against Ukraine is reshaping Europe in profound and unexpected ways, and not just on the battlefield. On June 1, the leaders of 45 European countries, from Britain to Georgia, gathered to discuss their collective security at the second summit of the European Political Community (CPE). It was held at Mimi Castle in Moldova, just 20 km from the Ukrainian border.
Although the recently re-elected Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stepped down, the summit was nonetheless a symbolic show of unity and support for countries on Europe’s vulnerable eastern flank, both for war-torn Ukraine and for the host country, Moldova. To drive the point home, Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, was there in person. Moldova has closed its airspace for the duration.
The idea of the CPE was imagined last year in a speech by French President Emmanuel Macron. Inspired by a confederation dreamed up in 1989 by François Mitterrand, then President of France, it was initially dismissed by many quarters as a French ploy to block the enlargement of the European Union to 27 members. France has always been reluctant to expand the bloc; in 2019, he vetoed the opening EU accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia. In 2003, another French president, Jacques Chirac, condescendingly rejected Eastern European candidate countries’ support for the US invasion of Iraq (which France opposed), saying that they had “missed an opportunity to be silent”.
Still, the community’s first meeting, in Prague last October, drew a crowd of 44, including leaders of places who did not wish to join the EU– notably Liz Truss, the British prime minister at the time. This time, the discussions focused on European security and Ukraine. No one expected revolutionary decisions, and none were made. But the leaders were able to talk to each other on an equal footing. Moldova’s President Maia Sandu has received a much-needed boost. Spain hosts next summit; Britain the one after.
Mr Macron arrived after a stopover in the Slovak capital, Bratislava, where, to everyone’s surprise, he said that EU enlargement must take place “as quickly as possible”. “The question for us is not whether we should expand,” he said, “but how we should do it.” In a nod to Chirac, Mr Macron confessed to the mostly Central and Eastern European audience: “Sometimes we missed an opportunity to listen.
This is a gradual but structural change in French policy, which will have repercussions on the future configuration of Europe. A year ago, during a (late) trip to kyiv, Mr. Macron supported Ukraine and Moldova to EU candidate status. French diplomats, who then headed the rotating presidency of the council, worked hard to gain support across the Union. France has also lifted its veto on North Macedonia’s membership application. In recent weeks, French diplomats have been working behind the scenes to ensure that Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries, can stage this week’s summit with panache.
The continent’s new geopolitics also seems to be pushing France in a more hawkish direction. In his speech in Bratislava, Mr Macron called for giving Ukraine a “pathway to NATO membership” at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius in July. From the president who in 2019 said The Economist that NATO was “brain dead” is quite a reversal. Mr. Putin, Mr. Macron said on May 31, “woke up [NATO] with the worst electric shock.
The French president will undoubtedly ruffle the feathers again when he wants. Nobody in Europe has forgotten that he once called for sparing Russia after the end of the war. During a recent trip to China, Mr Macron reignited concerns about his vision of “strategic autonomy” and his attachment to the Western alliance. This week, at least, the tone and the words were well chosen.
The months ahead will test how far new discourses of unity and solidarity can be translated into commitments. THE EU is working on a longer term funding commitment for Ukraine. As Mr. Macron noted, there will be no immediate consensus on Ukraine’s NATO membership before the Vilnius summit; America, for its part, remains reluctant. However, a reflection is underway on how to provide credible future security guarantees to Ukraine. For its part, France will host a meeting of defense ministers on June 19 to discuss European air defenses and the “deep strike” capability. She proposed to hold a dialogue on French nuclear deterrence.
France and Germany, the EU, the two largest countries, are also making greater efforts to get along. After a dismal period at the end of last year, when they contradicted each other on nuclear power, defense procurement, etc., there is a desire to get back to zero. The French President will visit Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, at his residence in Potsdam on June 6. In early July, Mr Macron will make a full state visit to Germany, the first for a French president in 23 years. A Franco-German working group is studying ways to reform the internal functioning of the EUa crucial prelude to further enlargement, but which will be strewn with pitfalls.
This week’s summit in Moldova is a reminder that Europe, in any form, is much larger than the axis between Paris and Berlin. Yet little is done in the EU unless France and Germany come to an agreement. Generally, the two countries differ on most issues but share a desire to find common ground. They must now find a common approach to pan-European security, if they hope to make this week’s summit in Moldova more than symbolism and a group photo.■
