• Swiss unemployment rate in February 2.5%, 2.6% previous
• Swiss unemployment rate in February 2.3%, 2.3% previous
• German current account balance of January 16.6 billion, forecast 20.1 billion, 24.8 billion previous
• German industrial production in January (MoM) 3.0%, forecast 1.7%, -2.2% previous
• German trade balance for January 18.5 billion, forecast 15.4 billion, 19.0 billion previous
Looking to the future – Economic data (GMT)
• 14:00 US Feb CB Employment Trends Index 110.20 previous
• 2:00 p.m. 12 month French BTF auction -0.642% previous
• 2:00 p.m. in French BTF 3 months -0.627% previous
Looking to the future – Economic events and other press releases (GMT)
• No significant event
EUR / USD: The euro rose sharply against the dollar on Monday, as investors sold their risky assets after falling oil prices exacerbated concerns about the economic fallout from the coronavirus epidemic. At the same time, the number of coronavirus cases worldwide has exceeded 107,000, as the epidemic has spread to more countries. Italy has taken drastic measures and sealed off large parts of the country’s prosperous north, including the financial capital Milan. The euro rose 1.17% to $ 1.1416. Immediate resistance can be observed at 1.1498 (daily high), an upward break can trigger an increase towards 1.1573 (January 1, 2019 high) .On the other hand, immediate support is observed at 1.1400 (psychological level), a break below it could bring the pair towards 1.1335 (daily low).
GBP / USD: The British pound gained further against a falling dollar on Monday, as fears linked to coronaviruses and the fall in oil prices shook world markets. Money markets in Britain increased their bets on a drop in Bank of England rates later this month to limit the damage. They now have a price down by almost 50 basis points at the March 26 central bank meeting. The pound has gained against the dollar in recent days as investors have fled to safe havens, driving US Treasury yields down after the US federal government. The Reserve emergency rate dropped last week. Immediate resistance can be observed at 1.3200 (highest of the day), an upside breakout can trigger an increase towards 1.3279 (55 DMA) .On the other hand, immediate support is observed at 1.2727 (lowest of the day) below could bring the pair to 1.2700 (Psychological level).
USD / CHF: Dollar fell against Swiss franc on Monday as investors fled safe havens to cover the economic shock of the coronavirus and oil fell more than 20% after Saudi Arabia lowered its official sale price. The world’s leading oil exporter plans to dramatically increase production after the collapse of OPEC’s supply reduction agreement with Russia, a seizure of market shares reminiscent of a surge in 2014 that caused prices fall by about two-thirds. At (GMT 12:16), the greenback was down 0.78% against the Swiss franc at 0.9296. Immediate resistance can be observed at 0.9644 (5 DMA), an upside breakout can trigger a rise towards 0.9789 (11 DMA) .On the other hand, immediate support is observed at 0.9177 (lowest of the day), a breakout below could bring the pair to 0.9100 (Psychological level).
USD / JPY: The dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Monday, as a 30% collapse in oil prices and the fall in stock markets panicked investors and pushed up currency prices. Investors are losing dollars due to the collapse of US Treasury yields. The benchmark return is 0.45% after trading above 1% last week as traders abandoned risky assets and are heading for the security of the government bond markets. Oil fell 30% after Saudi Arabia pledged to cut prices and boost production after the collapse of an OPEC supply agreement. Strong resistance can be observed at 105.33 (100 DMA), a bullish break can trigger a rise towards 106.00 (psychological level). On the other hand, immediate support is seen at 100.86 (lowest of the day), a break below it could bring the pair towards 100.00 (psychological level).
Summary of actions
European stocks fell on Monday with the benchmark STOXX 600 in bear market territory, as fears of a global recession were amplified by a 25% drop in oil prices and a lock-up in the north of Italy to contain the coronavirus epidemic.
At (GMT 13:50), the British benchmark FTSE 100 was down 7.29% for the last time, the German Dax by 7.03%, the French CAC finished by 7.13%.
Raw materials summary
Oil prices lost up to a third of their value on Monday in their biggest daily rout since the 1991 Gulf War after Saudi Arabia announced that it would increase production to gain market share as the coronavirus has already left the excess market.
Brent crude futures fell 22% to $ 37.05 a barrel at 1,000 GMT, after an anticipated decline of 31% to $ 31.02, their lowest since February 12, 2016.
Crude oil in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more than 24% to $ 33.20 a barrel, after initially falling 33% to $ 27.34, also the lowest since February 12, 2016.
Gold prices fell 1% Monday as investors made profits after the metal surpassed $ 1,700 an ounce for the first time in more than seven years, fearing economic fallout deeper coronavirus epidemic.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $ 1,663.35 an ounce at 5:53 a.m. GMT, after reaching its highest level since December 2012 at $ 1,702.56 earlier. The US gold futures contract fell 0.4% to $ 1,665.30.
Summary of treasury bills
Italian government bond yields skyrocketed amid concerns over coronavirus trading Monday morning after the country ordered a virtual foreclosure in much of its rich northern region.
Italy’s 10-year yield jumped 24 basis points to 1.32%, its highest level since late January. This widened the gap between 10-year yields for Italy and Germany – a key measure of risk on the latter above 200 basis points for the first time since August 2019.