Global oil demand is forecast to increase 5.6 million barrels per day (b / d) in 2021 from a low of 92.2 million b / d in 2020, the U.S. Information Administration said. energy (EIA) in its latest estimate, with forecast growth now at around 200,000 bpd. lower than the outlook for last month.
In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA expects global consumption of oil and liquid fuels to average 97.77 million bpd this year, down from the December STEO estimate of 98 million bpd.
For 2020, global oil demand averaged 92.2 million b / d, down 9.0 million b / d from 2019. The 2020 estimate is also lower than the December forecast. EIA of 92.38 million bpd.
According to the latest EIA estimates published in the January STEO this week, global oil demand will return to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of 2022, with 2022 average demand at 101.08 million bpd, this which would represent a growth of 3.3 million bpd compared to this year.
As the EIA lowered its forecast for global oil demand for 2021, it raised its average Brent Brent forecast for this year by $ 4 a barrel. The EIA now expects spot Brent crude oil prices to average $ 53 per barrel in 2021 and 2022, compared to an average of $ 42 per barrel in 2020. In the December STEO, the EIA forecast that Brent prices would average $ 49 per barrel in 2021.
WTI crude oil prices will on average be about $ 3 per barrel lower than Brent prices in 2021 and $ 4 per barrel lower than Brent in 2022, according to the EIA.
For crude oil production in the United States, the EIA expects production to rise from a record high of 12.2 million b / d in 2019 to 11.3 million b / d in 2020. Average annual production is expected to decline further to 11.1 million b / d this year, before dropping to 11.5 million b / d in 2022.
OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish their first monthly reports for this year with their latest forecasts for oil demand and production on January 14 and 19 respectively.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for OilUSD
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