A year after facing each other in a playoff shootout, the Bills and Dolphins are set to face off in a warmup for the 2023 NFL playoffs. But maybe it’s an understatement, as their upcoming Week 18 matchup has playoff implications for both teams, even though both teams have secured a playoff spot.
The Bills have won four straight, putting themselves among the top title contenders in the AFC; a win on Sunday night would give them the No. 2 seed (they would face the Steelers in the wild-card round), while a loss would give them the No. 7 seed (and set up a rematch with the Dolphins ). Miami, meanwhile, can also win an AFC East title by avenging an October loss to Josh Allen and Co., in which case they would be the No. 2 seed and face Buffalo again. A Dolphins loss would make them the sixth seed, sending them to Kansas City next week.
Any way you slice it, this prime-time affair will be must-see television, shaping the entire AFC playoff picture.
What are the keys to the match? And how can you connect? Here’s everything you need to know:
How to watch
The keys to the game
- Who protects Tua Tagovailoa? The Dolphins quarterback stayed up all year, but left late in Week 17 after injuring his throwing shoulder. Even though he will be back at center here, his offensive line remains in a state of collective pain. Four of Miami’s five starting blockers are dealing with some sort of injury, and the last time they faced Buffalo, Tagovailoa was sacked four times and hit five others. The Bills attack QB as well as anyone, with the third-most sacks in the NFL, and the numbers confirm that the Dolphins it’s just not the same offense when their forehead is beaten.
- Will Stefon Diggs go away? Like AJ Brown with the Eagles, Diggs has been quiet with the media recently amid a cold spell, but all the stars could align for a breakthrough before the playoffs. Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard will be sidelined due to injury, leaving journeyman Eli Apple as one of Miami’s best cover men. The last time Diggs faced this secondary, he passed for 120 yards and three scores – his best game of the season.
- What weapons will be available for Miami? In addition to being up front, the Dolphins also have Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle, with No. 1 receiver Tyreek Hill coming off a practice absence due to a personal situation. Buffalo hasn’t been as dominant in run defense as it is in pass defense – Rasul Douglas’ running ball certainly plays a role in that – but if Mostert isn’t at full speed, Miami could depend on De’Von Achane, who is coming out of his own wound.
Prediction
Earlier this year, the Bills struggled to close out important games. They’ve since blossomed into the kind of playoff-caliber threat we expected all along. The Dolphins, meanwhile, opened 2023 full throttle, only to struggle to stay healthy the rest of the way. It’s not necessarily an easy decision, even with all of Miami’s physical woes. After all, the Dolphins are 7-1 at home, while Buffalo has struggled more on the road, going 3-4. And Mike McDaniel is going to prefer to deliver a potential knockout blow to the Bills rather than let the club’s main AFC East rival gain even more momentum heading into the playoffs.
That said, the glaring mass of injuries in key spots is hard to ignore in Miami. Guys like Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey will always give you a chance, but if Josh Allen could take on Vic Fangio’s secondary in October, he can surely do the same in January, especially against this lineup. Never say never, but we love Buffalo to sweep the regular season series. Take: Bills 29, Dolphins 24
And if you’re wondering which team all our experts are picking, here are their predictions against the spread:
The game closes Week 18 on “Sunday Night Football.”
