Qin Gang, Chinese Foreign Minister, in Berlin on May 9; Li Shangfu, Chinese Minister of National Defense, in Singapore on June 4. Credit – Thomas Truutschel—picture-alliance/dpa/AP; Vincent Thian—AP
gGeneral Li Shangfu, China’s Defense Minister, was last seen in public on August 29, when he gave a nondescript speech at a China-Africa security forum in Beijing. When he apparently failed to show up for an international meeting he was supposed to attend in early September, Chinese authorities said it was due to a “health problem.” Reports over the past week suggest he is currently under investigation for corruption and expected to be removed from office, but a Chinese spokesperson would not confirm this to reporters.
Li’s mysterious absence follows the similar disappearance of former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who was last seen in public on June 25 before being unceremoniously replaced from his ministerial post by his predecessor Wang Yi. Qin – who also initially reportedly faced unspecified “health issues” amid intense speculation and rumors about an extramarital affair – has yet to reappear in public.
The disappearance without explanation of two senior ministers in a few months underlines the opacity and unpredictability of Xi Jinping’s government.
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Such a dramatic upheaval among the Chinese Communist Party’s top brass is highly unusual, Victor Shih, a political science professor and director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego, told TIME. Government officials are carefully vetted before appointments and promotions to ensure stability, and Li and Qin had just been elevated to the State Council, the country’s top administrative body, earlier this year. “You would think that everyone who left has already shown that they are very loyal to [Xi]”, says Shih, “otherwise they wouldn’t be in leadership positions.”
But aside from generating intrigue, the sudden and unexplained ousters of Li and Qin also threaten, experts say, to further complicate the already difficult challenge of working with China, both for foreign companies and foreign governments.
“Business doesn’t like uncertainty of any kind,” Chen Gang, deputy director of the East Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore, told TIME. China’s lack of transparency – the government has cut off international access to public data and stopped publishing a number of national economic indicators, such as the youth unemployment rate – reduces trust and increases the risk for foreign investors. The looming threat, implied by the apparent and sudden dismissal of two officials who held important diplomatic functions, that the government could change direction at any time, exacerbates the uncertainty related to trade relations with China, Chen said. That said, he adds, many would welcome a change in China’s current approach to external engagement, which has become increasingly hostile, and the recent cabinet reshuffle could be a “window of opportunity” for this to happen.
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But while it’s not yet clear whether Xi’s foreign or defense policy will actually change as a result, Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official and senior fellow at National University’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of Singapore, told TIME that the turnover itself highlights the extent to which Xi has consolidated his power and made everyone else in the government replaceable.
Even though China’s domestic economy is in turmoil and doubts remain among CCP elders about Xi’s competence, current Chinese officials may become even more “afraid to make decisions or express,” Thompson says.
“This presents a huge challenge for companies seeking to influence or even inform Chinese policymakers about the impact of their policies,” he adds. “While foreign interlocutors seek to engage with their Chinese counterparts, they do not engage with party decision-makers; they engage with the performers.
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