As fragments of the downed Chinese “spy” balloon rushed to land off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday, so did, for now, hopes for a reset in US-China relations. As divers search for the remains of the airship shot down by a US fighter, officials in Beijing have accused Washington of an overreaction that has dealt a “hard blow” to ties between the world’s biggest military powers. China has provocatively violated US airspace; a planned visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing had already been canceled. The incident threatens to trigger a vicious cycle that would cause serious economic and political damage. But this should be a moment of restraint, not escalation.
Beijing improbably insisted that a “civilian weather airship” had been blown away by high winds while collecting weather data, in a “force majeure” case. US officials said they confirmed it was a surveillance balloon carrying unusual equipment. It would be surprising if such an incursion were endorsed by President Xi Jinping, whose recent commitment to improving relations with the United States seems sincere. This opens up the possibility that his presence was the result of miscommunication between the arms of the Chinese apparatus – or, worryingly, that a hardline faction tried to sabotage the reset.
Either way, the timing is unfortunate. Several developments are looming that could further strain relations. US officials are increasingly concerned that Chinese state-owned companies are supporting Russia’s military effort against Ukraine by supplying technology and semiconductors, which could pressure the White House to act. . The administration should already next month create a body to examine outgoing American investments in China. And new Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is set to follow his Democratic predecessor Nancy Pelosi with a visit to Taiwan this year — though there are better, less inflammatory ways for the United States to show solidarity with the country. autonomous island.
Beijing called the use of force by the United States against the balloon a “serious violation of international conventions”. However, it would be well advised to keep any retaliation discreet. As he seeks to manage China’s exit from its ‘zero Covid’ policy and revive economic growth, Xi has good reason to continue the thaw he initiated with US President Joe Biden in Bali in November. last. Biden is under fire from warmongering Republicans at home that the balloon was only shot down after crossing the US coast, days after its presence was revealed.
There are lessons to be learned from the US-Soviet Cold War. The world’s superpowers then engaged in frenzied espionage, just as the United States and China are today (indeed, balloons have retained a place among the panoply of high-tech surveillance tools used by the two parts). Cold War enemies sometimes caught themselves in the act, but somehow developed ground rules. Washington and Beijing must also recognize the economic, political and ideological flashpoints between them and develop mechanisms to manage the risks while reducing the danger of outright war.
During the Cold War, this was achieved, in part, by establishing contacts between officials at many levels. The hope was that Blinken’s visit to Beijing, which was to be followed by that of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, would be the next step in a similar process. It should be noted that the United States used the word “postponed” in connection with the visit of the Secretary of State. The dust from this latest incident must settle, but then Blinken’s trip would have to be rescheduled. The US-China relationship matters too much to the world to be blown up by a high-tech hot air balloon jumping over the Atlantic.
