Stocks fell for a fifth day, but sovereign bonds gained, a hint that the market catalyst has shifted from hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) prices – where stocks and bonds fall at the same time, to fears of recession, where equities remain under pressure as investors seek refuge in safer sovereign assets.
Falling yields have kept the US Dollar under pressure below the critical 200-DMA level, which sits at 105.75.
A big move of the day was oil. A barrel of US crude slipped below the $73 floor and fell to $71.70 on growing recession fears.
And note that we have started to see a structural change in the oil markets. The crude price curve was down until a month ago. But over the past few weeks we have started to see the beginning of the price curve drop and even return to contango. I discuss in this episode what this means for oil prices.
Elsewhere, news that China increased its bullion reserves for the first time in three years boosted gold and silver. The currency ratio has fallen below 80, but gold may still be a better bet for those preparing their portfolios for the recession.