Winning and winning is what’s at stake Saturday night when two 9-7 AFC South teams — the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts — face off in Indianapolis. The winner will clinch a playoff spot while the loser will see their 2023 campaign end in style.
The winner also has an outside shot at the AFC South division title, provided the Jacksonville Jaguars are upset by the last-place Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Indianapolis emerged victorious in the first meeting between these two teams with a 31-20 road victory at Houston in Week 2, a game they led 31-10 entering the fourth quarter.
Texans rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, had a strong performance in the loss (384 yards and two passing touchdowns on 30 of 47 passes), but Houston did not failed to find much rhythm offensively until they were already down three touchdowns late in the third quarter.
Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, started this contest and threw for 56 yards on 6-of-10 passing while rushing for 35 yards and two scores on three carries before suffering a concussion. Veteran backup Gardner Minshew came off the bench to throw for 171 yards and a touchdown on 19 of 23 passes while Jonathan Taylor’s backup Zack Moss had an admirable performance, totaling 88 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Indianapolis outgained Houston by 74 yards (126-52), the worst margin of any game this season after taking an early lead.
How will the high-stakes rematch play out in Week 18? We have what you need.
How to watch
Date: Saturday January 6 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
TV: ABC/ESPN | Flow: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports app
Odds: Texans -1.5, O/U 47.5 (odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Playoff implications
HOUSTON TEXANS
Houston wins AFC South Division title:
1) HOU victory + JAC defeat or tie
Houston clinches playoff spot:
1) HOU wins OR
2) HOU tie + JAC loss + PIT loss or tie
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Indianapolis wins AFC South Division title:
1) IND victory + JAC defeat or tie OR
2) IND equality + JAC loss
Indianapolis clinches playoff spot:
1) Victory for the IND OR
2) Tie IND + loss or tie PIT
When the Texans have the ball
Stroud and the Texans had success in their first game since suffering a concussion in Week 14, earning a 26-3 victory over the Titans in Week 17. He threw for 213 yards and a touchdown while by effectively completing 75% of his passes (24 out of 32). Houston has the 10th best total offense in the NFL this season (344.6 total yards per game), but most of that production comes from Stroud’s right arm.
The Texans’ 99.2 rushing yards per game ranks 22nd out of 32 NFL teams, while their 245.4 passing yards per game ranks seventh in the league. If Houston wants to get a win and their first playoff appearance since the 2019 season, they need a signature performance from Stroud, who played in top-five quarterback range in year one.
CJ Stroud this season
|
Passing Yards/Att |
8.1 |
3rd |
|
TD-INT |
21-5 |
1st |
|
INT% |
1.1% |
1st |
|
Passing grade |
99.0 |
6th |
With fellow rookie Tank Dell out for the season, Stroud’s connection with third-year player Nico Collins is what keeps Houston’s offense on schedule. The tandem totaled 1,066 yards together, the fourth-most rookie quarterbacks and a single passer in a season since the start of the 21st century.
Most receiving yards thrown by rookie QB to a pass receiver
Unique seasons since 2000
*One game remaining in the 2023 regular season
The two connected for 146 yards and a touchdown, an eight-yarder in the first quarter, on seven completions in Week 2, but aside from the touchdown, much of their connection has already resulted in several scores. If they can get an early start, the Texans will have a chance.
Indianapolis has seen a significant defensive turnaround since Week 9, allowing 20.4 points per game, the 11th fewest in the league during that span. Through the first eight weeks of the season, they allowed 28.6 points per game, worst in the NFL.
The key to their defense is their opportunistic pass rush. They have 49 sacks as a team this season, the fifth most in the NFL, and they are the only team to have four players with at least seven sacks: defensive end Samson Ebukam (9.5), defensive end Kwity Paye (8.5), defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo (8.0) and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (7.0).
It’s not a cohesive group, but they make the most of their opportunities. Indy’s quarterback pressure rate of 32.4% in 2023 is the seventh lowest in the NFL. However, when the Colts get openings, they convert them into sacks. The Colts’ defensive sack rate of 8.3% is sixth-best in the NFL. The Texans are right around league average in quarterback pressure rate allowed with a 35.5% clip rate, 16th in the NFL. This entry battle will be one to watch.
When the Colts have the ball
Their offensive keys are running the ground game and getting the ball into the hands of wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr.. Since Gardner Minshew became the team’s full-time starter in Week 6 after Richardson fell with a shoulder, their offense has been a roller coaster, which is mostly on the rise at the moment.
Minshew racked up a league-high nine turnovers in his first three starts as the primary starting quarterback from Weeks 6-8, but has since cooled off during the Colts’ 6-2 stretch with just five turnovers during this period.
Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor has scored a touchdown in five straight games, tied for the second-longest active streak in the league. Zack Moss, the team’s leader in rushing yards this season with 764 – including an NFL-best 466 from Weeks 2-6 – will play Saturday despite a questionable forearm injury, according to NFL Media. meaning he and Taylor will share the backfield. for the first time since Week 6 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a 30-13 home victory. The duo totaled 161 yards from scrimmage on the day.
Pittman Jr. is by far the go-to player in the passing game, leading the team in catches (104, sixth in the NFL), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (four). His 104 receptions account for 30.4 percent of the Colts’ catches, the second-highest share of team receptions in the entire league this season, behind only CeeDee Lamb’s NFL-best 122 catches, accounting for 31 percent of total receptions. Dallas Cowboys team catches.
Houston offensive line vs. Indianapolis offensive line will be a circle game. The Texans’ 45 sacks are tied for 10th in the league, while the Colts’ 40 sacks allowed are tied for 16th in the league. Rookie quarterback Will Anderson Jr.’s 57 pressures lead all rookies as well as all Texans while his seven sacks are tied for second in his draft class as well as on his team. However, Houston’s sack leader, defensive end Jonathan Greenard (12.5), is out with an ankle injury, a major blow.
However, the Texans have two of the best cornerbacks in the league on the back end. Former top-five pick Derek Stingley Jr.’s five interceptions are tied for fourth-most in the NFL, while Steven Nelson’s four are tied for seventh-most in the league. If Anderson Jr. can get to Minshew, the Colts quarterback could easily throw one.
Prediction
Score: Texans 27, Colts 23
In high-stakes games like this, the team with the better quarterback usually wins. It’s cliché, but that’s usually how it goes. Stroud, while still a rookie, is already a much better quarterback than Minshew ever was in his five-year career. His connection with Collins starts humming early, allowing Anderson Jr. and the Houston defense to play the pass and nullify the Colts’ two-headed ground attack featuring Taylor and Moss.
This will lead to at least one Minshew interception, enough to be the difference in a one-possession Texans victory.
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, I highly suggest checking out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet on for each game in Week 18.
