BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia’s output of major oil and coal exports will fall 16.9% and 28.4% respectively over the next 10 years, the government forecast on Tuesday, but the impact will be mitigated by better prices for both fuels.
Oil production will fall to 654,000 barrels per day (b / d) in 2030, from 787,000 b / d, Deputy Finance Minister Juan Alberto Londono said in a presentation to congressional economic committees on royalties.
Colombia is trying to increase its 2 billion barrels of oil reserves, which equates to about 6.3 years of consumption, by expanding exploration and improving recovery levels in existing fields. It is expected to announce the initial offers for its current oil cycle on Friday.
It was not clear whether the oil production estimates included potential production using unconventional methods like hydraulic fracturing, the use of which depends on pending approval from the country’s highest administrative court.
Crude prices will rise over the next decade to reach $ 74 a barrel, from an average of $ 37 this year, the presentation said.
Coal production – Colombia’s main mining export – will fall to 53 million tonnes by 2030, from 74 million this year, according to the presentation, as prices rise from current dismal levels of $ 29 per tonne to 46. dollars per ton.
Slower economic growth in China, a global shift towards renewables and oversupply have weighed on global demand for coal.
Colombia’s mining future lies in metals, not coal, mining and Energy Minister Diego Mesa told Reuters in a recent interview. The government is eager to invest on a large scale in gold, copper and other minerals, and last week celebrated the opening of China’s major Zijin-Continental Gold miner project in Antioquia province.
Colombian royalties from oil and mining will increase to 9.4 trillion pesos ($ 2.46 billion) by 2030, from the 7.07 billion pesos forecast for this year, according to the presentation.
Reporting by Nelson Bocanegra; Written by Julia Symmes Cobb; Edited by Jonathan Oatis