The Boise State Broncos are scheduled to face the Fresno State Bulldogs this weekend. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Boise State Fresno State prediction, odds, and pick.
The Boise State Broncos entered the Mountain West Conference game knowing they had to be close to perfect to make the NCAA Tournament. Boise State’s non-conference slate was a disaster. The Broncos lost to Saint Bonaventure, which would have been a boosting win, but they also suffered losses to Cal State Bakersfield, UC Irvine and Saint Louis. They didn’t get a top-line win, leading college basketball odds experts to downgrade them by the time Mountain West’s schedule began.
However, in Mountain West play, the Broncos have actually been perfect. They are 7-0 in the league and their last three wins have been the best of the pack. Boise State won on the road at Utah State and San Diego State. He then came home and beat Wyoming. Mountain West’s steady collection of good wins atop has made Boise State a likely but not certain team in the NCAA Tournament. When considering a Boise State Fresno State pick, consider the Broncos’ elite form right now. They play excellent defense with a long, deep formation that disrupts attacking sets and alters shots. If you’re looking for an over-under game in college basketball odds, consider an under with Boise State. The Broncos’ win at San Diego State came in a 42-37 rock fight. It remains the lowest total number of points scored in a college basketball game this season (79). Loyola-Chicago and Southern Illinois had an 83-point (44-39 Loyola) game earlier this week.
Fresno State lost to Boise State earlier this season, scoring just 55 points against the Broncos’ locked-down defense. The Bulldogs beat Utah State at home. They are talented and lucky enough to make some noise in the Mountain West. However, they have no margin for error, having lost to Cal and Utah, two teams below average. Fresno State also recently lost to Nevada. The Bulldogs, 4-2 in the Mountain West, need to get on a winning streak at Boise State if they’re going to have any chance of dancing in March. Incorporate that detail into a Boise State-Fresno State pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Boise State-Fresno State odds:
College Basketball Odds: Boise State-Fresno State Odds
Boise State: -1.5 (-114)
Fresno State: +1.5 (-106)
Over: 119 (-114)
Minus: 119 (-106)
* Watch College Sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why Boise State could cover the spread
The Broncos managed to win on the road at Utah State and San Diego State, two of the toughest places to win in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State is also tough at home, but if Boise State could win at Logan and San Diego, it can win at Fresno. The Broncos are in a defensive groove under head coach Leon Rice. It’s easy and natural to think of a groove as an offensive first reality, but Boise State’s pace and success begins at the defensive end of the floor. Fresno State scored just 55 points against BSU in the first meeting between these two teams. Even if Fresno State improves that total slightly, the Bulldogs will still struggle to score 65 points, which they might need to win.
Why Fresno State could be covering up the spread
Boise State’s 7-0 record in the Mountain West region is in danger of being shaken at some point. Fresno State, playing at home late on a Friday night and desperate for a push at the NCAA Tournament, will spill the fuel tank and do whatever it can to win. This is a situation in which one team might be better, but the other team will play with more energy.
Final Boise State-Fresno State Prediction and Pick
A Fresno State win is a distinct possibility, but Boise State trusts each other completely in close games and continues to win them. It’s hard to bet against until someone proves the Broncos are lethal in the Mountain West.
Boise State-Fresno State Final Pick: Boise State -1.5