Two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks will square off on Sunday Night Football. Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes will take to the court for the sixth head-to-head meeting between the legendary flaggers. Brady leads the game all-time by a 3-2 margin, including a victory in Super Bowl LV. Brady leads the 2-1 The Under hit in all three Buccaneers games this season and in the Chiefs’ last two games.
Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET in Tampa. Tampa Bay is favored by one of Caesars Sportsbook’s latest Chiefs vs Buccaneers odds, while the over/under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks it will score, is 46. Before making any Buccaneers vs Chiefs picks, you need to see NFL predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has grown nearly $7,000 for players to $100 on top NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on NFL’s top picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model has also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the last six years on NFL direct picks and has beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that time. Anyone who followed him is upstairs.
Now the model has set her sights on Chiefs vs Buccaneers and has just locked down her Sunday Night Football picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to see the model choices. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs Buccaneers:
- Chiefs vs Buccaneers spread: Buccaneers -1
- Chiefs vs Buccaneers over/under: 46 points
- Money line Chiefs vs Buccaneers: Chiefs +100, Buccaneers -120
- KC: Chiefs are 11-12 ATS in their last 23 games
- TB: Buccaneers are 12-10 ATS in their last 22 games
- Chiefs pick vs. Buccaneers: See picks here
Featured game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City is marked by a high-powered offense, headlined by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. The Chiefs are already on the march with productive offensive numbers, but the start of the 2022 season is also encouraging for the team’s defense. Kansas City is in the top 10 in total defense, giving up just 314 yards per game and 27.3 yards per drive. The Chiefs have allowed just 58 first downs in the first three games, and teams convert just 32.6 percent of third downs against Kansas City.
The Chiefs have four players with multiple sacks this season, headlining Chris Jones with two and four tackles for loss. Kansas City has allowed just one rushing touchdown, with top ratings in rushing defense (86.7 yards allowed per game) and yards per carry (3.6). The Chiefs are giving up just 5.1 net yards per pass attempt, and the Buccaneers are currently No. 22 or worse in offense, points per drive, total yards, yards per drive, first downs, rushing yards, yards per carry and third lowest in efficiency this season.
Why the Buccaneers can cover
Tampa Bay’s defensive prowess is impressive. No team has allowed fewer runs than the Buccaneers, allowing just 27 runs in three games. The Buccaneers also lead the league in points allowed per player (0.75), turnover created (8) and turnover rate (22.2%). Creating havoc is helpful, but the Buccaneers are also rock solid, ranking 4th in the NFL in yards allowed per game (289.0) and yards allowed per drive (24.1). Tampa Bay is No. 2 in first downs allowed (44), with three passing touchdowns allowed against five interceptions.
The Buccaneers allow just 4.9 net yards per pass attempt and give up just 79.3 rushing yards per game. Tampa Bay hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season and opponents are averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. The Chiefs are struggling to run the ball, averaging just 93 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry, and Tampa Bay can capitalize on that while trying to slow down Patrick Mahomes.
How to make Chiefs vs Buccaneers picks on SNF
SportsLine’s model looks at total points, with the model claiming 48 points. The model also indicates that one side of the gap hits in almost 60% of the simulations. You can only see the model’s SNF picks on SportsLine.
So who wins the Buccaneers against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Buccaneers vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the pattern on a 139-103 roll on NFL picks, and find out.
