Two of the 2023 preseason Super Bowl favorites will square off on Sunday Night Football in Week 4. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for a prime-time battle. Raymond James Stadium features the game between the teams 2-1 in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian. The Chiefs are 1-1 on the road this season, losing to the Indianapolis Colts last week. The Buccaneers are 0-1 in home games, falling short in a game against the Green Bay Packers in Week 3.
Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET in Tampa. The game is a pick in Caesars Sportsbook’s latest Chiefs vs Buccaneers odds, while the over/under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks scored, is 45.5. Before making any choices between the Buccaneers and Chiefs, you should check out the NFL predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has grown nearly $7,000 for players to $100 on top NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on NFL’s top picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model has also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the last six years on NFL direct picks and has beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that time. Anyone who followed him is upstairs.
Now the model has set her sights on Chiefs vs Buccaneers and has just locked down her Sunday Night Football picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to see the model choices. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs Buccaneers:
- Chiefs vs. Buccaneers spread: PK
- Chiefs vs Buccaneers over/under: 45.5 points
- Money line Chiefs vs Buccaneers: Chiefs -110, Buccaneers -110
- KC: Chiefs are 11-12 ATS in their last 23 games
- TB: Buccaneers are 12-10 ATS in their last 22 games
- Chiefs pick vs. Buccaneers: See picks here
Featured game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City’s defense is off to a strong start, ranking in the top 10 in total yards allowed for three weeks. The Chiefs are still backed by an explosive offense, however, and Kansas City’s offensive settings are elite. Led by Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are No. 4 in the NFL in points, averaging 29.3 points per game. Kansas City is scoring on 45.2 percent of offensive possessions and averaging 2.65 points per drive, both of which rank in the top five. The Chiefs are also in the top seven in yards per game (374.0) and yards per drive (36.2) with just three turnovers in three games.
Kansas City has 68 first downs, a top-10 rating, and converts 40 percent third down chances with just two sacks. That sack avoidance is tied for best in the NFL, and the Chiefs also take advantage of red-zone chances, scoring a touchdown on 69.2 percent of the way inside the 20-yard line. With top-six marks in passing yards, passing touchdowns, net yards per pass attempt, and interception avoidance, the Chiefs are exceptionally tough to stop.
Why the Buccaneers can cover
Tampa Bay’s defensive prowess is impressive. No team has allowed fewer runs than the Buccaneers, allowing just 27 runs in three games. The Buccaneers also lead the league in points allowed per player (0.75), turnover created (8) and turnover rate (22.2%). Creating havoc is helpful, but the Buccaneers are also rock solid, ranking 4th in the NFL in yards allowed per game (289.0) and yards allowed per drive (24.1). Tampa Bay is No. 2 in first downs allowed (44), with three passing touchdowns allowed against five interceptions.
The Buccaneers allow just 4.9 net yards per pass attempt and give up just 79.3 rushing yards per game. Tampa Bay hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season and opponents are averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. The Chiefs are struggling to run the ball, averaging just 93 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry, and Tampa Bay can capitalize on that while trying to slow down Patrick Mahomes.
How to make Chiefs vs Buccaneers picks on SNF
SportsLine’s model looks at total points, with the model claiming 48 points. The model also indicates that one side of the gap hits in almost 60% of the simulations. You can only see the model’s SNF picks on SportsLine.
So who wins the Buccaneers against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Buccaneers vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the pattern on a 139-103 roll on NFL picks, and find out.