The Kansas City Chiefs have reached the Super Bowl in four of the last five seasons, including a 38-35 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles a year ago. On Sunday, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will look for a third Super Bowl title in this span when they take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58. The game will take place at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, with the 49ers at search for their first Lombardi. Trophy in three decades. San Francisco is also aiming to avenge a loss to Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV, when the Chiefs overcame a second-half deficit to win their first Super Bowl of the Patrick Mahomes era.
Kickoff will be at 6:30 p.m. ET in Las Vegas on CBS and Paramount+. San Francisco is a two-point favorite, while the over/under, or the total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. 49ers odds. Before locking in any 49ers vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, costs well over $7,000 for $100 players among the NFL’s highest-rated picks since its inception. The model enters the 2024 NFL Super Bowl with an incredible 184-129 streak on top-rated NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season. He is also on a 38-21 record among top-rated picks rated since Week 7 of last season and has landed seven straight top-rated picks heading into the 2024 NFL playoffs.
The model has ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the last six years on straight NFL picks and has beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who followed him is at the top.
Now the model has set its sights on Niners vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for the Chiefs vs. Niners:
- Chiefs breakdown vs. 49ers: 49ers -2
- Chiefs vs. 49ers over/under: 47.5 points
- Chiefs money line against the 49ers: 49ers -127, Chiefs +107
- SF: 49ers are 9-10 ATS this season
- KC: Chiefs are 12-7-1 ATS this season
- Chiefs vs. 49ers picks: See the picks at SportsLine
- Streaming Chiefs vs. 49ers: Paramount+ (seven-day free trial)
Why the 49ers can cover
On defense, San Francisco’s devastating creation is elite, including a league-best 22 steals and a 15.5% defensive turnover rate. This led to 28 takeaways in 17 regular season games and the 49ers also ranked in the top eight in total yards allowed (303.9 per game), rushing yards allowed (89.7 per game ), yards allowed per pass attempt (6.4) and sacks. (48).
On offense, the 49ers keep the pressure on their opponents with balance, becoming the first team in the NFL since 2004 with a 4,000-yard passer and four players with at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage. San Francisco led the NFL in yards per play (6.6), yards per drive (37.8), red zone efficiency (67.2%) and points per drive (2.70) this season . The 49ers had 34 points and 413 total yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game and had just 18 giveaways in 17 regular season games. That goes along with the top four marks in passing yards (257.9 per game) and rushing yards (140.5 per game), as well as the most rushing touchdowns (27) in the NFL. Find out which team to choose here.
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City’s offense is dangerous, scoring points on 39.3% of offensive possessions during the 2023 season. The Chiefs have averaged 2.01 points per drive, with top-10 marks in terms of total yards per game (351.3), yards per drive (33.3), first downs (350), passing yards (246.4 per game), passing touchdowns (28) and efficiency of the third down (43.6%). Kansas City is also increasing its production on the ground in the 2024 NFL playoffs and San Francisco has tallied 159.0 rushing yards per game in two postseason contests.
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is the first quarterback in NFL history to make four Super Bowl starts before age 30. He is third all-time with 14 playoff wins, and Mahomes has the best six-year stats in NFL history in touchdown passes and passing touchdowns. Additionally, Mahomes is 14-3 in the playoffs and has 39 touchdowns with just seven interceptions in the postseason. The Chiefs gave up just 10 points in the AFC Championship Game and are yielding just 13.7 points per game and 5.0 yards per play in the playoffs. Kansas City is also the only NFL team since 2011 to allow fewer than 28 points in every game this season. Find out which team to choose here.
How to make picks between the Chiefs and 49ers
SportsLine’s model is leaning under the total, calling for a combined 45 points. The model also indicates that one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model choices on SportsLine.
So who wins the 49ers against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which 49ers vs. Chiefs side to pick in the 2024 Super Bowl, all from the Advanced Model that costs well over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.