Important sports stories inevitably have an impact on the world of betting, even if they involve a sensitive subject. It’s just the nature of the business because that’s exactly what it is. This activity involves a lot of money and industry experts need to address unique variables as they would an injury or any other development.
Hurricane Ian impacted soccer games in the Southeast this weekend, causing schools throughout the week to consider moving or rescheduling them. In turn, bettors and professional bettors have had to adapt accordingly. Extreme weather conditions could completely alter a game. Thus, nearly 10 games have seen their total drop between six and eight points since their first display last Sunday. But in the end, it remains a guessing game and bettors have protected themselves.
“Betting on the weather seven days ahead is hit and miss, and the only one with an advantage is the big guy upstairs,” BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott told ESPN. “And to my knowledge, he doesn’t bet.”
However, on the other side of the counter, experienced and knowledgeable bettors have an advantage. This is because they know how to optimize the fine print for this unique situation. Simply, there is no universal house rule for a game that changes location or date. Each sportsbook has its own policy, which they actually solidified during COVID-19.
Some operators void all bets if a game changes location or day. Simple. Some declare action for any bet regardless of a change. It’s also easy. After that it gets tricky. One book requires the game to be played within 100 miles, while another considers the bet to stand, as long as the home team is still designated as the home team. If the game is rescheduled, a few books require the game to be played within seven or eight days of its original date. House rules in another book specify that all NFL games must be played the following Wednesday.
So if bettors do their homework and are armed with all the details while also understanding how the market will react, then they can use the house rules to their advantage. And they can do that by monitoring college and NFL teams announcing contingency plans.
So this week, professional bettors not only bought the best number, but they also bought the best house rule. This is because they could be playing both sides of a game and if it moves then they have a right number on a book that considered that ticket an action and then also have a wrong number on a book which will cancel the ticket. If the game is never moved, the bettor just loses juice. It’s a risk worth taking for several games that could lead to huge rewards.
Ranked Matches
No. 7 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Ole Miss Rebels (-7)
What do we really know about Ole Miss? I will save you time and energy. The answer is… absolutely nothing. Give him some credit for being undefeated, but the verdict is still due to an extremely loose schedule so far. That point spread opened around 4.5 and is now a full touchdown. Arthur, my adorable French Bulldog of recent fame at the SportsCenter, wears a blue checkered bow tie and probably belongs to The Grove. But I ride with the dog.
Choose: Kentucky +7
No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. No. 16 Baylor Bears (-2.5)
I lost a lot of money the last time they met. The Pokes had every chance to win the Big 12 Championship game and couldn’t hit it. I may never get over it. And while I know Oklahoma State really wants revenge, that number just seems too short. I realize the Bears are coming off of a tough game at Iowa State, but the Cowboys haven’t been tested at all. And they even sometimes struggled against weak competition; they only led Arizona State by three points in the fourth quarter at home. This is unacceptable. QB Spencer Sanders is dynamic, but Dave Aranda will have that defense ready.
Choose: Baylor -2.5
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 20 Arkansas Razorbacks
I really like this game, but I don’t feel good about it. I am petrified that professional bettors pounced on Bama when it opened at 14.5 and pushed the spread higher. I also hate that FPI has this line at 22.1. But I always ride with the Hogs, who will have a “red out” and create an imposing environment. Bama is a juggernaut, but keep in mind that four of Bryce Young’s five road starts have been decided by three runs or less. And for all his dominance, Nick Saban is just 12-12 ATS on the road against the SEC’s top 20 teams. I expect it to be difficult.
Pick: Arkansas +17
No. 10 NC State Wolfpack at No. 5 Clemson Tigers
I can’t remember the last time I bet a large sum of money on a Clemson game. I can never get a good read on this team since Trevor Lawrence left, even though we escaped last week with Wake and the points. Again, I’m leaning towards the outsider. The Tigers are getting the best shot of everyone and NC State wants this game, and I also doubt Clemson can string together four solid quarterbacks. I really like Devin Leary and coach Dave Doeren, so let’s grab the points.
Choose: State NC +7
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Additional games
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers
The Bulldogs showed some vulnerability last week, leading Kent State by just 10 points in the fourth quarter. This doesn’t bode well for Mizzou, as I expect the Dawgs to take out their frustration from the kickoff. Plus, the Tigers are coming off a demoralizing and heartbreaking overtime loss to Auburn. It’s a lag on paper and I think UGA is in for that rebound performance.
Pick: Georgia -17.5 in the first half
LSU Tigers (-8) vs. Auburn Tigers
This game will probably burn me, but I have to take the bait and score the points. Road conference chalk is never fun, especially in this particular series where the home team usually wins and covers, but Auburn is a complete disaster. Bryan Harsin is the hot seat, and I’m always looking to support Brian Kelly. In fact, Kelly showed his coaching skills earlier this season against Mississippi State. Trailing 13-0, the Tigers took control after solid mid-game adjustments. Meanwhile, Auburn is one of the nation’s worst second-half offenses against FBS competition. These are two programs that go in opposite directions.
Select: LSU -8
Florida International Panthers vs. New Mexico State Aggies
As you can see by now, I like to pick one of Saturday’s ugliest games – and that might take the cake. I actually did pretty well with these doozies. Last week we backed the Aggies as home favorites against Hawai’i and we’ll do the same here.
Honestly, Florida International is a wreck. The Panthers haven’t defeated an FBS school since 2019. They finished last season with 11 straight losses and snapped that streak this year with a 2-point conversion to defeat Bryant in overtime. After that victory, they were eliminated by Texas State, among the worst teams in FBS, and then just lost 73-0 to Western Kentucky.
Pick: New Mexico State -14.5
