Can the Bills maintain their recent dominance over the Pats? Plus, other best bets for Thursday

That happens. The College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams starting in 2024 season, and I’m one of the few not to be thrilled. Don’t get me wrong, I’m going to watch it, and not just because it’s literally my job to do so.

What I won’t do is accept talking points from PR firms about why expansion is good. It will not lead to more meaningful games. It will only some games more meaningful while making others less. Nor will it lead to “more parity”. For years there has been a call for expansion to allow more teams to win the national title, but have you seen the CFP rankings?

If the favorites win this weekend, the following two things will happen.

• The CFP will welcome two debutants for the second consecutive season
• This will be the first CFP in history not to feature one of the states of Alabama, Clemson or Ohio

The parity that everyone claimed didn’t exist is happening right before their eyes! Anyway, the point is, if you want another piece of cake, don’t tell me you want it because it will improve your digestive health. Just say “because it looks good”.

How about expanding our portfolios with a few winners?

All Eastern times and odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The hot ticket

Bills at Patriots, 8:15 p.m. | TV: Amazon

• Key trend: Buffalo has won four of five meetings since 2020 by an average of 17.5 points.
• The choice: Invoices -3.5 (-110)

There was plenty of spirited action on the Patriots who ran the line from Buffalo -5.5 Game 1 to Buffalo -3.5. To these sharps, I say thank you. You idiots, and your analysis made this game so much easier for me. OK, you’re not stupid, but seriously, you’ve all managed to push the market too far in one direction, and now it’s time to buy back.

History Time: For a long time, with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in tow, the Patriots dominated the Bills. Things have changed in recent seasons. Not only has Buffalo won four of five since the 2020 season, but it has also won all four games by averaging 17.5 points. New England’s only win was a 14-10 victory at Buffalo, contested in freezing and windy weather. You might remember it as the night Bill Belichick allowed Mac Jones to throw three passes.

In two other games last season, including a Wild Card game, Buffalo outscored the Pats 80-38. So, in summary, as long as they weren’t playing in high winds and Mac Jones weren’t asked to throw the ball, the Patriots could compete with the Bills. The forecast for tonight is 35 degrees with a light breeze. The Patriots are 6-5, but those six wins have come against Pittsburgh, Detroit, Cleveland, Indianapolis and the Jets (twice). These five teams are combined 23-32-1.

The Bills are the better team in this game and will cover that short number tonight.

Here’s what SportsLine has to say about the game: Sportsline’s Stephen Oh is 16-7 ATS in his last 23 picks involving the Patriots and he has a play posted on the site for tonight’s game.

💰 College Basketball Picks

No. 21 UCLA at Stanford, 10:30 p.m. | Television: ESPN2

Latest odds:

Stanford Cardinal +6

Pick: Stanford +6 (-110) — It pains me to do this because I’ve made so much money betting on UCLA the past few seasons, and a few players remain on our NCAA Magic Tournament roster from two years ago, but that line is off . UCLA shouldn’t be such a big favorite against Stanford tonight. This reflects the fact that Stanford is 3-4 this season, but the Cardinal has played a much tougher schedule than the Bruins.

UCLA is 5-2 this season and has only faced two teams in the top 150 of KenPom’s current standings. Guess whose two losses were? Yes, Illinois and Baylor. Now Stanford isn’t Illinois or Baylor, but UCLA wasn’t tested by anyone else on its schedule and had it all too easy. Stanford have a proven track record and have a massive height advantage over the Bruins. If the Cardinal dominates the boards like I expect, he may not win, but he will cover.

Illinois State at Murray State, 8 p.m. | Television: ESPN+

Latest odds:

Illinois State Red Birds +11

The choice: State of Illinois +10 (-110) — Murray State was one of the best mid-majors in the country last season. The Racers went 20-0 in the OVC and reached the tournament before falling to Cinderella St. Peter’s. This led to coach Matt McMahon getting the job from LSU. Steve Prohm, who had a great run at Murray State that landed him the job at Iowa State, returned to Murray State because this time at Iowa State was not fruitful!

His second stint with the Racers is off to a bumpy start. They are just 3-3 this season and haven’t been particularly good on the attacking or defensive end. Illinois State is just 2-5, and its wins over Eastern Illinois and Northwestern State are unimpressive. But he moves slowly and limits possessions, which will prevent him from flying away. The gap in this game gives too much credit to Murray State for what it did last season and failed to correct the team’s performance this year.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Larry Hartstein is crushing it betting on the NFL this year and he’s shared his favorite plays for Week 13.