Italia politics can be bewilderingly complex. Five large parties and many small ones will participate in the September 25 general election. Before that, they will mingle with an uncertain number of electoral alliances. Yet the race to replace Mario Draghi’s ousted government already boils down to one question. Is there anything his opponents can do to stop Giorgia Meloni (pictured), leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy (FDI) party, to become the next Prime Minister?
Ms Meloni’s party is part of an alliance that also includes the nationalist Northern League, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and a few smaller parties. Polls currently suggest this group could garner more than 45% of the vote, which should be enough for a majority in parliament. On July 27, the alliance renewed an agreement which stipulates that if they win, the leader of the party with the most votes will become prime minister. Ms Meloni’s party are around ten percentage points ahead of the League and 15 points ahead of Forza Italia.
The center-left Democratic Party (pd), led by former Prime Minister Enrico Letta, is about as popular as the FDI. The two could get around 23% of the vote (see chart). But Mr Letta’s efforts to build a broad electoral alliance are in shambles, in part because Italian progressives seem unable to bury their differences. On August 7, Carlo Calenda, a businessman-turned-politician who left the pd form a centrist group, Azione (Action), said it was withdrawing from an electoral pact with the pd which he had sealed with Mr. Letta five days earlier. He said he disapproved of the deals Mr. Letta subsequently made with three other smaller parties. Mr. Letta answered curtly: “The only possible ally for Calenda is Calenda.”
The Action party could now join forces with Italia Viva, a small centrist group led by Matteo Renzi. Mr Letta has never forgiven Mr Renzi for ousting him as prime minister in 2014 and has not sought to include Italia Viva in his alliance. The absence of Action and Italia Viva means his alliance will remain firmly on the left, limiting his appeal to centrist voters. Polls suggest he could end up with less than 30% of the vote. But Mr Calenda’s antics have diverted attention from the real problem, says Antonio Noto of Noto Sondaggi, a polling firm. “The only centre-left alliance with a real chance of victory should join the Five Star Movement.”
The centre-left under Romano Prodi won the 1996 and 2006 legislative elections, beating Mr Berlusconi, then the main figure on the right. But Mr Prodi has not had to contend with the Five Star Movement, founded in 2009 with the far-fetched aim of installing an internet-based system of direct democracy that continues to defy easy categorization. Although his support has dropped from the 32% he won in previous elections, polls still give the Five Star Movement 10% of the vote. Mr Letta said his role in bringing down the last Italian government disqualified him from his alliance. But without its support, Italy’s centre-left seems doomed to what Mr Noto calls “an announced defeat”. â–
