PARENTS IN SOFIA, the Bulgarian capital, like to take their children to the Museum of Illusions, where they can take distorted photos of themselves in strange mirrors and gaze at optical illusions until their eyes meet. As Bulgaria geared up for its fifth general election in two years on April 2, voters could be forgiven for thinking their country’s politics were also largely an illusion. Take last year: As parliament debated whether to allow arms to be sent to Ukraine, Bulgarian leaders insisted the country was not yet doing so. In fact, on November 3, when parliament approved the exports, its arms factories had already been shipping arms to Ukraine for months.
Boyko Borisov (pictured), a burly conservative, dominated Bulgarian political life from 2009 to 2021. His GERB party is pro-Western in a country where Russia is widely admired. His term as prime minister ended in May 2021 amid massive protests over corruption allegations. From now on, the political landscape is stripped of the major parties. The policy towards Ukraine and Russia remains contested. The share of Bulgarians who view Vladimir Putin favorably fell from 70% before the invasion of Ukraine to 29% after. But a poll in October found that 67% thought Bulgaria, a NATO MP — should remain neutral, 16% that he should support Ukraine and 9% that he should support Russia.
Ruslan Stefanov of the Center for the Study of Democracy, a think tank in Sofia, says about a quarter of the electorate backs political parties “which today call themselves patriotic but are essentially pro-Russian”. The other parties can call themselves a “Euro-Atlantic coalition”. But they are divided on how, if not whether, to tackle high-level corruption.
The nationalist Revival party, one of the two main pro-Russian formations, is now campaigning against the adoption of the euro by Bulgaria. The other, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), took part in a short-lived pro-Western government from December 2021 to June 2022. The leader of the BSP, who was Minister of Industry in this government, publicly opposed the sending of arms to Ukraine. But in her role as minister, she authorized arms companies to ship them to third countries from where they were sent to Ukraine.
Members of the same government helped negotiate an agreement under which Lukoil, a Russian oil company with a strong presence in Bulgaria, continues to import and refine oil from Russia and then export much of it for possible use in Ukraine. (Officially, diesel is exported to companies in other countries, but they act as conduits for Ukrainian buyers.) Russia derives export revenue from oil, a person involved in the deal said. The arrangement is acceptable to the Russians, who calculate “that if they didn’t sell the oil to Ukraine, someone else would.”
Last June, Bulgaria expelled 70 Russian diplomats. Some would have tried to bribe members of the BSP; yet the leader of the party reproached the prime minister for peremptorily expelling them. Christo Grozev, a journalist who works with Bellingcat, an open-source investigative group, told parliament in January that in 2016 Russia’s military intelligence agency conspired to overthrow Mr Borisov’s government. Many believe the interference was stifled because of Russia’s economic importance to Bulgaria. Asen Vasilev, a reformist politician who served as finance minister until last August, notes that much of the country’s corruption is tied to Russia. “We thought we had two separate problems: corruption and Russia. But it turned out to be the same problem.
In the last elections in Bulgaria in October, Mr Borisov’s party came first but was unable to form a government. The latest polls show that the coalition of pro-Western parties which governed until last June is neck and neck with GERB. If they win, they may have to choose between an alliance with the Russophiles BSP or one with Mr. Borisov. In March 2022, when the reformists were in power, Mr Borisov was arrested in connection with a corruption investigation but released without charge. He denied any wrongdoing. In February, the United States imposed sanctions on Vladislav Goranov, Mr Borisov’s former finance minister, for corruption.
Much of Mr Borisov’s power lies in his party’s control of most major cities. Hence the real fight for the future, says Mr. Vasilev, hanging on the outcome of local elections in October. Indeed, if the general elections next week are not conclusive, another will have to be held alongside the local elections. Bulgaria resembles Italy in the early 1990s, Mr Vasilev says, when a campaign to root out mafia influence was accompanied by a succession of short-lived governments. In Italy, however, an independent judiciary has been able to tackle corruption. In Bulgaria, Mr Vasilev says, where the judiciary has been “entirely captured” by politicians, it is entirely up to the electorate to rid themselves of the rot.■
