On the eve of March, the bubble teams of the NCAA tournament clashed Saturday for another busy list of games. Some teams on the right side of the bubble have spotted their resumes. Other people outside who have sought to strengthen their credentials – or have done the opposite. Here is an overview of the performance of each marginal team and their presence in the projected field.
Profile Boost
Clemson (out): The Tigers (14-13, 77 NET points) stunned the state of Florida 70-69 to rekindle their hopes for an NCAA tournament after falling into the “vital support” category of the USA TODAY Sports parenthesis in recent weeks. ACC has not been as dominant as it has been in the past, but there is still room to improve the profile, which Clemson took advantage of on Saturday – winning a well-deserved victory in Quadrant 1. This team is still far from the good side of the bubble, but winning marquee matches is always a recipe for success before March.
State of North Carolina: The Wolfpack (18-11, 57 NET points) beat Pittsburgh 77-73 at home for a win in Quadrant 3. Not exactly a huge boost in profile, but that saved another loss from Quad 3 (NC State already has three), which this team really couldn’t afford. Coach Kevin Keatts’ team has had five wins in Quadrant 1, including a notable win against Duke. He entered the day as one of the “last four in” and will likely be safer.
Providence: The Brothers (17-12, 50 NET points) won yet another Quadrant 1 victory, this time defeating Villanova 58-54 on the road to eight profile Quad victories – far more than any team bubble. It’s a huge draw for a particular resume that also includes a loss of quadrant 4 and a poor non-conference list. Still, it’s four big wins in a row for a team that jumped to a No. 11 seed expected last week.
Oklahoma: Going into the day as the No. 11 seed, the Sooners (18-11, 49- NET) made a statement by easily handling West Virginia 73-62. That gives Oklahoma five Quad 1 wins, no bad losses, and a top 25 ranking – a solid portfolio in March. He also won two straight wins against ranked opponents (Texas Tech being the other) last week before March.
UCLA (in): The Bruins (19-11, 76 NET points) officially won the field with seven straight wins, the latest a 69-64 home victory over Arizona. This result also catapulted UCLA to the top of the Pac-12 classification. Coach Mick Cronin’s group had a better February than any team in the country. The problem is what happened before that, because the committee will notice a poor NET score, a loss of quadrant 4 (at Cal State Fullerton) and a force of timing out of conference in the 200s.
State of Mississippi (exit): The Bulldogs (19-10, 54 NET points) pushed the Missouri SEC kicker 67-63 down the road to get closer to the 20-win column. MSU is in desperate need of victories in quadrant 1 on its resume (it has only two) and Saturday was not going to provide it, but victory is the key to the final stretch for all borderline teams.
Memphis (out): The Tigers (20-19, 61 NET score) survived a blot in their resume by escaping Tulane 74-67 in overtime on the road. Memphis closes the AAC regular season by hosting Wichita State and then playing in Houston. You may need to win both to get a chance to enter the conference tournament.
Richmond (exit): Starting the day as one of the “top four”, the Spiders (22-7, 51 NET points) came together to become one of the “bottom four” by sending Massachusetts 95-71. What is hurting the cause of this Atlantic 10 team right now is that too many of its victories come from Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4. Only four victories have been won in Quad 1 and 2.
Northern Iowa: The Panthers (25-5, 43 NET points) hammered Drake 70-43 and even if it is a win against a lower opponent from the Missouri Valley, it is important for UNI – a currently projected No. 11 seed – to not to suffer a bad loss. As good as the numbers are for this team, a single loss of Quadrant 1 could stand out from the selection committee.
USC: Trojans (21-9, 45 NET points) approach the safest side of the bubble, defeating former Arizona State bubble team 71-61 at home after previously defeating Arizona earlier during the week. USC is a No. 10 seed, but was unable to win on the road or establish consistency in the wide open Pac-12.
Profile spots
State of Utah (out): The Aggies (23-8, 37 NET points) couldn’t really afford to trip over Mountain West and that is what happened in a 66-64 loss to New Mexico in the season finale. They have too many victories in the Quadrant 3 and 4 departments and only four came in Quad 1 or 2 games. There is now work to be done for the USU to receive a general offer. You might have to go to the final of the MWC tournament against the State of San Diego to hear his name called selection Sunday.
Florida: The Gators (18-11, 32 NET points) started the day as a No. 10 seed and drifted closer to the safety zone. But the 63-58 road loss on Saturday against compatriot Tennessee could deter Florida’s trajectory. The SEC is packed with bubble teams and Florida currently has the best tournament portfolio of all – sporting a top-10 off conference schedule and no bad losses. But winning in Tennessee would have given the Gators another Quad 1 victory to help secure their chances of going into the NCAA. Now there is more to prove.
Arkansas (out): Entering the day as one of the “first four”, the Razorbacks (18-11, 41 NET points) lost a game on the road to Georgia to fall more on the wrong side of the bubble. Before Saturday, Arkansas had won two straight games, but a five game slippage to start the month really shattered that team’s playoff hopes. There are no bad losses here and a top 15 off the conference schedule, but without more wins (including Quad 1 wins), this team will not be in March Madness.
South Carolina (out): The Gamecocks (17-11, 63 NET points) fell against another SEC team, Alabama 90-86, and it could very well have been a sort of elimination game – with the two teams away before kick-off. Coach Frank Martin’s group will face another bubble team on Tuesday when it welcomes Mississippi State. A loss of quadrant 4 against Stetson in a non-conference action could be the cause of this profile.
Syracuse (exit): Already away, the Orange (16-12, 59 NET points) did a disservice by losing against a North Carolina team 12-17 at home, 92-79. There are not enough wins on this profile to see coach Jim Boeheim’s team qualify for the NCAA. Syracuse has a decent road victory over Virginia but other than that the profile is pretty bare.
Notre Dame (exit): The Irish (18-11, 55 NET points) also couldn’t really afford a bad loss, which was the case in an 84-73 decision against Georgia Tech. This result likely ended all chances of a general offer, given that Mike Brey’s team has 295 outside the conference and only one win in Quad 1.
**
Explanator of the NCAA tournament:
- Quadrant 1 wins: home games against 1 to 30 NET teams; Games on neutral site vs 1-50 NET; Away games against 1-75 NET
- Quadrant 2 wins: home games against 31-75 NET; Games on neutral site vs 51-100 NET; Away games against 76-135 NET
- Quadrant 3 wins, losses: home games against 76-160 NET; Games on neutral site vs 101-200 NET; Away games against 136-240 NET
- Quadrant 4 wins, losses: home games against 161 + NET; Games on neutral site vs 201-plus NET; Away games against 241 and over NET
Note: Most statistical data are used USA TODAY, veteran sports parenthesis specialist, Shelby Mast. WarrenNolan.com and the NCAA NET ranking are also a benchmark.
Follow university basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.