The photo of the college football playoffs heading into the final weekend was pretty straightforward. Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati and the state of Oklahoma were all favorites to win their games and would be the four participants in the semi-finals.
It didn’t quite work that way. The Bulldogs were handled by Alabama in the SEC title game. The Cowboys fell to Baylor in a dramatic finish in the Big 12 title game.
Those results changed the math, but it’s still no mystery about the four teams that will make the playoffs. Michigan and Cincinnati confirmed their places with wins. Georgia stayed, despite the defeat. The state of Oklahoma comes out and Alabama arrives.
The only question is where the quartet will be classified. Cases can be made for Michigan and Alabama. Yes, the Crimson Tide looked fantastic against Georgia. However, their previous three wins over SEC opponents were 15 points combined, including a 6-6 four-overtime loss to Auburn.
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Meanwhile, the Wolverines have dominated Ohio State and Iowa in their last two games after also defeating Penn State on the road. Michigan was also ranked ahead of Alabama by the committee last week.
The other part of the math is where to put Georgia. It is likely that the committee will try to avoid a rematch of the SEC title match in the semi-finals. If the Bulldogs don’t fall behind Cincinnati, will the Wolverines move up to number one?
With all the considerations in mind, expect Alabama to lead Michigan, Georgia and Cincinnati in that order when the reveal takes place on Sunday afternoon.
A few other cases were settled this weekend. Utah and Ohio State are ready for the Rose Bowl. Baylor and Mississippi will head to sugar. Pittsburgh confirmed its place in the New Year’s Six with its ACC title.
In addition, a bowl was added this week to allow the playoffs to welcome the 84 teams that finished with six wins. The date and place are to be determined but are indicated in the graph.
Reminder: Some conferences may not meet their quota of bowls. The asterisks indicate an alternate choice. The teams in bold have accepted the places.