THE WANTED the destination is no doubt. In total, 97.7% of the voters of the Pacific island of Bougainville chose the independence of Papua New Guinea (PNG) during a referendum held in late November and early December. But how – and how quickly – the island will get there remains far from clear. The result of the election does not bind the government, which inherited from Bougainville, a part of the archipelago which includes the Solomon Islands, like a quirk of colonial cartography. There will now be a long consultation between the autonomous administration of the island and the national authorities. The final word goes to PNGParliament.
There are several reasons for this delay. Bertie Ahern, a former Irish prime minister who oversaw the referendum, says the island’s 300,000 or so people are not ready for independence. James Marape, PNGThe Prime Minister of Europe maintains that Bougainville’s economy is too weak and has promised higher spending on infrastructure. The main powers in the region, Australia and New Zealand, fear the creation of a begging state at their doorstep, susceptible, in particular, to bribes and Chinese crimes. Almost all of Bougainville’s revenue comes either from the central government or from foreign aid.
This was not always the case. Bougainville once owned the third largest copper mine in the world. He delivered almost half of PNGExport earnings in the 1970s. But arguments over the distribution of income and jobs at the Panguna mine sparked an insurgency in the late 1980s, which forced the mine to close. PNGThe Union’s armed forces struggled to take control of the mountainous terrain and the hostile population of the island. They withdrew in 1990 and blocked the island by sea. When PNG hired mercenaries of a company called Sandline International to restore order, its own soldiers mutinied, prompting the government of the day to fall and Australia and New Zealand to step in to negotiate a peace deal .
The agreement, signed in 2001, promised a referendum on independence by 2020 and self-government in the interim. But the mine has not reopened, leaving the autonomous administration without money. Other large oil and gas mines and deposits have been developed on the continent, undermining the central government’s incentive to operate autonomy. The main concern of national leaders these days is that Bougainville could inspire other secessionist rebellions, given PNGThe diversity (its 8.5 million inhabitants speak 839 languages), poverty, the isolation of the land and the disastrous infrastructure.
The head of the autonomous government of Bougainville, John Momis, has already supported greater autonomy within PNG—The other option on the ballot during the referendum. But the greed of PNGTax transfers and his wider neglect of Bougainville led him and other voters to independence. Few islanders trust Mr. Marape’s promise to resolve these issues, having heard such commitments before.
In fact, there is a risk of lack of leadership on both sides. Momis is 81 and has to retire by June due to the length of his term. He has no obvious successor. The people of Bougainville, having voted so strongly for independence, are likely to expect rapid change. Politicians seem unlikely to fulfill their desires. The chances of further discord are high. ■
This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the title “The Itch of 20 Years”
