With an exciting first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs mostly in the books, it’s time to turn our attention to the conference semifinals.
In many ways, this round could signal a changing of the guard in the NBA. LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler have all already been cut. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden could soon join them. Stephen Curry didn’t even make the playoffs.
Younger, more dynamic teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks are moving on.
Before these playoffs begin, it’s time to make some bold predictions about all the matchups we know about so far.
Jalen Brunson will average over 35 points again
After a first round in which Jalen Brunson averaged 35.5 points against the Philadelphia 76ers, that might not seem like too bold a prediction. But reaching these heights two rounds in a row is no easy feat.
Brunson will achieve this for several reasons.
Although they were a bit better defensively in the first round against the injury-ravaged Milwaukee Bucks, the Indiana Pacers gave up 118.9 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. Their slightly improved defense in the playoffs was more due to the absences of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard than any dramatic improvement.
Indiana also doesn’t have much length to throw at Brunson. Philadelphia had Kelly Oubre Jr., Nicolas Batum and Tobias Harris to throw at it, but Aaron Nesmith is the only Pacers option who could come close to replicating the type of resistance put up by the Sixers. The Pacers probably can’t afford to take Pascal Siakam away from OG Anunoby.
The matchups in this series are a little more favorable for Brunson than against the Sixers, but that’s not the only reason he’ll continue to start.
After his conference finals with the Dallas Mavericks and these last two playoff series with the Knicks, it’s fair to say that Brunson is one of the NBA’s greatest postseason players. His career scoring average in the regular season is 16.9 points and 22.9 in the playoffs. In 2023-24 alone, he’s gone from 28.7 points per game in the regular season to 35.5 so far in the playoffs.
Since his days as a Villanova Wildcat, Brunson has always responded well to the brighter lights. This will continue in the second round.
Tyrese Haliburton will rediscover his three-point shot
Tyrese Haliburton started this season absolutely hot for the Pacers. Over his first 33 games, he averaged 23.6 points and 12.5 assists while shooting 40.3 percent from deep.
Then he missed 10 of 11 games with a hamstring injury, and he hasn’t looked the same since.
Over his last 35 regular season appearances, Haliburton averaged just 16.8 points and 9.3 assists while shooting 32.4 percent from deep. In the Pacers’ first-round series against the Bucks, he made just 29.6 percent of his 9.0 three-point attempts per game.
Whether the hamstring injury is still bothering him or he’s dealing with the old issues who have crept up more recently, Haliburton just doesn’t look like the same explosive playmaker and outside shooter. At this point in the playoffs, when the mileage of a long campaign is starting to become a concern, it’s probably not fair to expect things to suddenly change.
That’s especially true considering the team Haliburton is about to face. The Knicks are gritty and relentless on defense. However, the lid will have to come off Haliburton at some point.
Prior to this season, Haliburton had made 40.8 percent of his career three-point attempts. He’ll have at least two or three games in this series where he looks more like his old self.
That might not be enough to beat the Knicks four out of seven times, but it should help keep this series competitive.
OKC defense will hold Luka Dončić to 40 percent shooting
Luka Dončić averaged 34.0 points and shot 55.6 percent from the field in two regular-season games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he was hampered by a knee injury this postseason , shot 40.5 percent from the field in the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers. and prepares to face a tenacious troop of perimeter defenders.
Luguentz Dort appears to be the primary defender against Luka, but OKC can also start him with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. And when one of those three gets beat, the Thunder rotate quickly and have a dynamic rim protector behind them in Chet Holmgren.
This team is long, athletic and seemingly tireless on defense, which is why they finished fourth in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions this regular season.
If the staff slows Luka down, that’s exactly what they’ll do, at least efficiency-wise.
Luka Dončić will average a triple-double
Even if he struggles to connect on shots at his usual level, Dončić will still average north of 25 points in this series (he’s never been below 30 per game for a playoff series). And attracting the attention of OKC’s best perimeter defenders will give his teammates valuable extra time to shoot after his putbacks.
He hasn’t averaged double figures in the assist column since the 2021 playoffs, but he was at 9.8 this season. And the Thunder selling his drives and pick-and-rolls will give him enough assist opportunities to clear 10 per game for this series.
That leaves just rebounding, and while the Dallas Mavericks have Daniel Gafford and Derek Lively to take advantage of OKC’s lackluster performance on the boards, that description doesn’t really capture how bad the Thunder are.
This regular season, they were 27th in offensive rebounding percentage and 29th in defensive rebounding percentage. There will be plenty of opportunities for Dončić to grab some extra rebounds here and there, and he already has a career average of 9.2 rebounds in the playoffs.
Jamal Murray will get back on track
Jamal Murray provided plenty of heroics in the first round against the Los Angeles Lakers, scoring two game-winners in the Nuggets’ five-game victory. But he also struggled mightily outside of the fourth quarter and shot just 40.0 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from three against Los Angeles.
Add in the calf injury that made him questionable for Game 5 against the Lakers and the fact that Jaden McDaniels could keep him in the second round, and it’s fair to be concerned about Murray. But closing out Los Angeles within five earned the Nuggets extra rest, and one bad shooting streak shouldn’t erase everything we know about Murray as a playoff player.
Over his career, Murray now averages 24.9 points and 6.4 assists in 58 playoff games. He made 39.5 percent of his threes in those contests. Although his score dipped a bit in the first round, his play was still crucial. He averaged 7.2 assists for the series.
If McDaniels is the primary matchup for Murray, he will continue to do damage as a distributor. And as we’ve seen time and time again, he’ll rise to the occasion to take on big moments in clutch time as a scorer.
Anthony Edwards will lead the series in scoring
Nikola Jokić is one of the greatest playoff players in NBA history, with career playoff averages of 27.5 points, 12.3 rebounds and 7.5 assists. Murray had three 40-point games during the Nuggets’ first-round series against the Utah Jazz in 2020.
Both solidified their status as performers in big games en route to last year’s championship.
But the top individual scorer in this series will be rising star Anthony Edwards, who averaged 31.6 points per game against the Nuggets in the 2023 playoffs and is coming off a first-round series in which he averaged 31.0 against the Phoenix Suns.
Denver’s best option to try to slow him down is probably Aaron Gordon, but dedicating him to Edwards would make life too easy for Karl-Anthony Towns or McDaniels. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a high-end perimeter defender, but he injured his ankle in Game 5 against the Lakers and is generally more effective against smaller guards. Compared to others at his position, the 225-pound Edwards is a tank.
Murray, Peyton Watson and Christian Braun will likely get their turn against Edwards as well, but the Nuggets won’t be able to really stop him.
Even if Edwards leads the series in scoring, that doesn’t mean the Timberwolves will topple the Nuggets. Edwards is going to put up huge numbers, but basketball is a team game. And no team has been better over the last two playoff series than the Nuggets.
