The weekly Bitcoin (BTC) options expiration this Friday currently holds $ 330 million in open interest. Given the recent struggle to regain the $ 32,000 support level, this event is an important test of the bulls’ willingness to show signs of reversion.
Alameda Research announced on Wednesday that it had made Bitcoin purchases below $ 30,000, and Sam Trabucco, the firm’s quantitative trader, mentioned that the BTC narrative could turn bullish due to fear, of continued uncertainty and doubt (FUD) caused by Chinese BTC. mining ban, GBTC grayscale unlock and stock market recovery.
The chart above shows that the current downtrend channel, initiated three weeks ago, could be invalidated if the price breaks the resistance of $ 32,200. This move appears to have been triggered by Elon Musk’s statement that his company SpaceX also owns Bitcoin.
During Wednesday’s meeting with Cathie Wood and Jack Dorsey, Musk said that despite rumors, he completely opposed recent speculation that Tesla had sold part of his Bitcoin position.
Elon Musk clarifies that Tesla did not sell bitcoin after triggering a sale https://t.co/jPxK5jBm3m pic.twitter.com/4uA5xB8OwB
– New York Post (@nypost) May 17, 2021
It should be noted that the rumors only had some support because Musk gave mixed signals on social media. In addition, Tesla had sold 10% of its Bitcoin holdings in the previous month.
$ 32,000 support crucial for bulls
Friday’s options expiration could be the first test of strength in this recent rebound. If the bulls want to set $ 32,000 as a support level, there is no better way than to do as much damage as possible to neutral to bearish put (put) options.
The first signal the bears have tried to dominate is the put-to-call ratio. The 0.81 reading reflects a smaller amount of neutral to bullish calls (calls) for the Friday 23 July expiration.
However, the bears may have set a trap for themselves as 96% of the puts used $ 32,000 or lower strike prices. If Bitcoin manages to stay above this level at 8:00 UTC on Friday, only $ 8 million in put options will participate in the expiration.
Related: Bitcoin Price Hits $ 32,000, But Derivatives Metrics Still Showing Signs Of Weakness
On the other hand, there are $ 29 million in call options up to the exercise price of $ 32,000. This $ 21 million difference favors the bulls. Although small, he is completely opposed to an expiration of less than $ 32,000.
If $ 32,000 fails to hold, the bears will have an advance of $ 9 million because only 9% of the call options were placed at $ 31,000 or less.
Neither outcome is of extreme importance, but the profits could be used for the larger monthly options expiration on July 30. This is the main reason bulls need to hold on to maintain the current momentum.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trade move involves risk. You should do your own research before making a decision.