The biggest game of NFL Week 18 will take place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Sunday Night Football. The Buffalo Bills will visit the Miami Dolphins for a regular season-ending matchup and the winner will claim the AFC East title. Buffalo is 10-6 overall and 3-4 on the road this season, with the Bills entering this game on a four-game winning streak. Miami is 11-5 overall and 7-1 at home, with the Dolphins looking to win their first division title since 2008.
Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET in Miami. For this game, the SportsLine consensus lists the Bills as 2.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or the total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 48.5 in the latest Bills vs. Dolphins odds. Before making any Dolphins vs. Bills picks, you should check out the NFL predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, costs well over $7,000 for $100 players among the NFL’s highest-rated picks since its inception. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 streak on top-rated NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season. He’s also on a 35-21 run among highest-rated picks in the NFL since Week 7 of last season.
The model has also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the last six years on straight NFL picks and has beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who followed him is at the top.
Now the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Dolphins and just locked in his NFL picks and predictions. You can now head over to SportsLine to see the model’s choices. Now, here are several NFL betting odds, lines and trends for Bills vs. Dolphins:
- Spread of bills against the dolphins: bills -2.5
- Bills vs. Dolphins plus/minus: 48.5 points
- Money line Bills vs. Dolphins: Bills -153, Dolphins +128
- BUF: Bills are 2-5 ATS in road games
- MIA: Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in home games
- Bills vs. Dolphins Picks: See the picks at SportsLine
- Live stream Bills vs. Dolphins: fubo (try for free)
Why bills can cover
The Bills are led by one of the best players in the NFL, star quarterback Josh Allen. He was excellent in the first game against Miami this season, completing 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards and five total touchdowns. Allen showed dominance against the Dolphins, averaging 328.9 total yards per game with 39 total touchdowns in 12 career games. He is the only player in NFL history to average at least 300 total yards and three total touchdowns per game against a single opponent in at least 10 career games. Allen also has two or more passing touchdowns in 12 straight games against the Dolphins, the longest streak ever against one team in NFL history.
This season, Allen leads the NFL with 42 total touchdowns and has 11 games with at least one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown. He is the first player in NFL history to record at least 40 total touchdowns in four consecutive seasons and ranks top seven in the league in total offense (4,266 yards), rushing touchdowns (15 ), QBR (68.2), passing yards (3,947), touchdown passes (27) and completions (355). Find out which team to choose here.
Why the Dolphins can cover
The Dolphins are 7-1 at home this season, averaging 34.1 points per game on offense and scoring 16.9 points per game against their opponents. On the other hand, the Bills are just 3-5 in games played away from Buffalo, scoring just 24.3 points per game in those contests. Miami’s offense is also explosive and productive this season, leading the NFL with 30.1 points per game. The Dolphins score 2.58 points per possession and lead the league in total yards (409.2 per game) and passes (271.1 per game). Miami is averaging 6.5 yards per play this season, No. 2 in the NFL, and that jumps up to 6.8 yards per play in home games.
Through the air, the Dolphins rank in the top four in pass completion rate (69.8%), yards per pass attempt (8.4) and passing touchdowns (29), Miami does not also allowing only 30 sacks this season. The Dolphins are also averaging over 135 rushing yards per game, leading the NFL with 5.0 yards per carry and 26 rushing touchdowns. Buffalo’s defense allows 4.6 yards per carry, No. 26 in the NFL, and the Dolphins also excel in the red zone, converting 64.9 percent of trips into touchdowns. Find out which team to choose here.
How to make Bills vs. Dolphins picks
SportsLine’s model leans toward the total, with both teams expected to throw for 249 yards or more. The model also indicates that one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model choice on SportsLine.
So who wins the Dolphins against the Bills on Sunday Night Football, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which way the Dolphins vs. Bills spread, all from the model on a 35-21 outcome on the NFL’s highest-rated picks, and find out.
