The South Carolina primary revived Joe Biden’s presidential campaign, giving the former vice president his first victory in the 2020 Democratic race. But the test of whether he can catch Bernie Sanders comes in three days, when 14 states vote Super Tuesday.
African Americans, who represent 60% of the state’s democratic voters, led Biden to a resounding victory with 48% of the vote, compared to 20% for Sanders. That gave him at least 33 of the 54 delegates to win in the state.
The victory saved Mr. Biden, who had very little cash after his poor results in Iowa and New Hampshire. While second in Nevada, South Carolina confirmed its claim that the racially diverse state – which is more representative of the Democratic national electorate – is the “firewall” that shows its true strength .
“The press and the experts declared this candidacy dead. Thanks to you, the heart of the Democratic Party, we have not only won, we have won big, “said Mr Biden. “We are very alive.”
Biden thanked his “buddy” Jim Clyburn, the South American legislator from South Carolina whose approval was an important factor for voters, according to entrance polls.
“This is a dazzling victory, so Biden will likely embark on Super Tuesday,” said Larry Sabato, a political expert from the University of Virginia, who said that Super Tuesday could make the results moot. , but that he “now has a chance to fight”.
He wonders if he can generate enough cash and momentum to stop Mr. Sanders, who raised $ 46 million in February and has a double-digit lead in national polls.
Biden has barely campaigned or broadcast ads in the Super Tuesday states in recent weeks. He hopes to succeed in North Carolina, helped by Mr. Clyburn, and in Virginia. It can also do well in Alabama, which has a large black electorate.
Sanders leads him 24 points to California, the largest state in Super Tuesday with 415 delegates. Mr. Biden only has 11%, which increases the risk of not reaching the 15% threshold to win delegates.
The other joker for Mr. Biden and the moderates is whether Michael Bloomberg will be a big factor during Super Tuesday. The former mayor of New York skipped the first four races to focus on March 3, when a third of the total delegates will be allocated.
After spending hundreds of millions of dollars, its survey numbers are uneven. In Texas, Mr. Bloomberg is in third place with 20%, while in California, he is far fourth. However, he has the financial resources to stay in the race for as long as he wants.
“The key is the Fab Four in the center-left: Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. If all four stay, say hello to Bernie Sanders as a Democratic candidate, “said Charlie Cook, political analyst. “Even Bloomberg, for all of his resources, can’t stop Sanders if Bernie attracts 40 percent or more of the delegates and the rest burst.”
In another hurdle for Mr. Biden, the Californians voted early for a month, so he can’t get a big boost from his success in South Carolina. But he votes better in Texas, which on Tuesday awarded 228 of the 1,991 delegates necessary to win the nomination.
Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, hurt South Carolina due to the low support of black voters, which raises questions about his campaign. Amy Klobuchar, the moderate senator from Minnesota, came sixth. Sanders also took advantage of Elizabeth Warren, his progressive colleague, who failed to win any delegate from Iowa.
But the Massachusetts senator collected a lot of money after bludgeoning Bloomberg in the Nevada debate, giving him the resources to continue for a while. She votes better in California and Texas, and hopes to win her home country on Tuesday.
While Mr. Biden had a spring in his step on Saturday, he faces pressure to inject more vitality into his campaign. In an interview before elementary school, Mr. Clyburn told the Financial Times he was frustrated by the lack of energy, which he blamed on Mr. Biden by focusing on Mr. Trump rather than his rivals. “I think it was a huge mistake.”
Follow Demetri Sevastopulo on Twitter: @dimi
