Ladies and gentlemen, I’ve done the math, and I want you to know that by February 13, the date of Super Bowl 56, we will have at least one football game played in 107 days out of 157. Did you feel a tingling of excitement reading this sentence because I wrote it.
The 2021 NFL season kicks off tonight with the defending Tampa Bay Buccaneers champion taking on the most popular team for nothing relevant for a quarter of a century, the Dallas Cowboys. And I’m pumped. So excited tonight’s entire newsletter is all about gaming.
I have three plays for you for tonight’s game because you know you’re going to watch. All pre-season discussions are over. Your fantastic drafts are complete. The actual games start tonight.
Now, let’s catch up with today’s news, and then get down to business.
Now let’s bet some NFL football.
All Eastern Time and All Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The hot ticket
Cowboys at Buccaneers, 8:20 pm | Television: NBC
The pick: Cowboys under 20.5 points (-110): I have a few tilts when handicaping this game from a standard spread and point total perspective, but nothing that I like. As far as the gap goes, I’m leaning for Tampa Bay, and when it comes to the total, I’m a bigger fan of the underside. I wasn’t sure which one I wanted to take when the clarity slapped my face like a ton of bricks.
I love Tampa and its pennies for the same reasons: I’m skeptical of the Cowboys offense tonight. Dallas will be without Zack Martin on the offensive line tonight, which is a huge loss for them. This affects both their running game and their pass protection. Although Martin has been in good health for most of his career, he missed six games for Dallas last season, and it’s hard to ignore the impact that has had on the Dallas offense.
Coach Jonathan Coachman is joined by Mike McClure, Allan Bell, Matt Severance and Larry Hartstein to hand out Thursday’s best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
In the eight games Martin started and ended, Dallas averaged 27.8 points per game. Over the course of the eight games, Martin played 25% or fewer snaps on offense, Dallas averaging 19.6 points per game. It’s a steep fall, and while the loss of Dak Prescott also had an impact on those numbers, the Cowboys offense was better in games that Andy Dalton started with Martin as well.
Tonight, the Cowboys will be without a key offensive lineman against a Tampa defensive front who was one of the best in the NFL last season and was one of the main reasons the Bucs won. the Super Bowl. So instead of playing the spread and the total, I erase the Dallas offense.
Key trend: Dallas averaged just 19.6 points per game when Zack Martin didn’t start or play in less than 25% of snaps last season.
Here’s what SportsLine says about the game: SportsLine expert RJ White, who finished the 2020 season on an 80-59 run on NFL expert picks, has released his plays for tonight’s game, and you’ll want to see what he does. has to say.
Choices
NFL
Cowboys at Buccaneers, 8:20 pm | Television: NBC
The choice: Mike Evans to score a TD (+100) – Do you remember the start of last season for Mike Evans? In Tampa’s first five games of the season, he’s caught six touchdown passes, with at least one in every game. It was a trend that continued for most of the season. Between the regular season and the playoffs, Evans caught 15 total touchdowns, scoring in 12 of the 19 games he’s played most (he only saw 16% of the shots in the regular season finals. of Tampa).
Evans has always been a red zone target thanks to his size and ability to box defensive backs, and he brings big play potential. That’s why he’s Tom Brady’s favorite target and had 25 more targets. than anyone else on the team last season. Evans also led the Bucs in red zone targets with 18 last season.
Key trend: Mike Evans touched down in 12 of 19 games last season.
NFL
Cowboys at Buccaneers, 8:20 pm | Television: NBC
The choice: Blake Jarwin Over 1.5 receptions (-180) – Blake Jarwin Hive, stand up! OK, so maybe there isn’t a Blake Jarwin hive, but Jarwin will be coming back from an injury that cost him most of the 2020 season, and hopefully he can save us some money. . When Jarwin last played an entire season in 2019, he caught 31 assists in 15 games or just over two receptions per game. But while we don’t want to look at the numbers, there is a lot of common sense to consider here.
Imagine you are the defensive coordinator for Tampa Bay. You face a Cowboys attack with Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Will Blake Jarwin be at the center of your defense? Of course not; he’ll be the guy you’ll gladly let catch a few passes if that means you can take out the bigger threats from the picture. We are therefore betting on little old Blake Jarwin to get a few passes for us.
Key trend: Since 2019, including the playoffs, Jarwin has caught at least two assists in 11 of 19 games.
?? The SportsLine choice of the day: Want to play DFS a bit tonight? SportsLine’s DFS guru Mike McClure shares his optimal games for tonight’s single game roster.
MLB Parlay Underdog
Yesterday’s underdog parlay has struck, so why not try and keep the momentum going with another? We’re going to need something to pay attention to during commercials, so Take this two-legged parlay that pays +320.
- Royal (+105)
- Blue Jays (+105)