The Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears will kick off our three-game list for Thanksgiving as these NFC North rivals face off from Ford Field. Both of these clubs just lost in Week 11. For Detroit, they are still winless on the season at 0-9-1 and were without starting quarterback Jared Goff in their previous clash with Cleveland due to a oblique injury. He has a chance to play on Thursday, but if he can’t make it it will be Tim Boyle under center. Meanwhile, the Bears will be deprived of rookie phenomenon Justin Fields after sustaining a rib injury in Sunday’s loss to the Ravens, meaning veteran Andy Dalton will get the green light.
Below we will specifically take a look at the different betting angles this holiday game has in store for us. We’ll take a look at how the lines have evolved throughout the week leading up to Thursday and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player accessories.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Dated: Thursday 25 November | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
Site: Ford Field (Detroit)
TV: FOX | Flux: fuboTV (try for free)
To follow: CBS Sports app
Chances: Bear -3, O / U 41.5
Line movement
Latest odds:
Detroit Lions +3
That gap originally had the Bears as the field favorite against Detroit and briefly moved to -3.5 on Monday before reverting to its opening number.
The choice: Bear -3. Andy Dalton is more than capable of handling this Bears offense against a Lions defense that ranks 28th in the NFL in DVOA. As long as Dalton remains error-free, the defense should be able to set aside Tim Boyle or a hobbled Jared Goff in this game. Meanwhile, the Lions have been largely mediocre against the run this season and Chicago will be deploying running back David Montgomery, who ran for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns against this team earlier this year. A defensive, ball-controlled victory could be in order for the Bears here.
Key trend: The Bears are 4-1 ATS against teams with a loss record.
Over / Under total
That game’s total dropped significantly after opening to 45 before Week 11. As a result of Justin Fields’ rib injury, that number dropped to 41.5.
The choice: Less than 41.5. That’s a very low number, but it’s hard to see those clubs light up the scoreboard on Thursday. During the season, the Bears (16.3) and Lions (16) rank 29th and 30th in the NFL, respectively, in points per game. For the Bears, they’ve been an even worse offense on the road, averaging just 14 points per game (31st in the NFL). Considering those numbers and the fact that both of these teams could start saves, it’s hard not to lean downwards.
Key trend: Over is 7-2 in the Bears’ last nine games overall.
Player accessories to consider
David Montgomery’s total rushing yards: Over 77.5 (-115). Detroit is one of the worst defenses in the NFL, averaging 140.5 yards per game rushing. Those numbers are even worse when you look at the Lions’ last three games (188.3 rushing yards per game). This allows Montgomery to have an exceptional performance since returning from the injured reserve.
Total yards receiving D’Andre Swift: Over 33.5 (-120). Swift has been a running monster for the past two weeks, averaging 133 rushing yards. This could be part of the reason why his production in the passing game has faltered a bit. However, I would expect him to reprise that role on Thursday and step over a receiving yard accessory that he has already eclipsed six times this season. That Bears defense last week saw Devonta Freeman catch his six targets for 31 yards, and Swift is a much deadlier receiver at this point in his career.
