Alabama basketball and Mississippi State have taken very different paths since the two teams faced off in late December.
The Crimson Tide has taken the lead in winning every game since the game. Alabama remains the only undefeated SEC team in conference play. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have only won one game since then.
Mississippi State has lost seven of its last eight games. Alabama has won eight straight.
And now the Bulldogs will look to go to Coleman Coliseum and beat No. 2 Crimson Tide (17-2, 7-0 SEC) on Wednesday (8 p.m., SEC Network).
Alabama won the previous game against Mississippi State in Starkville 78-67.
Ahead of the first conference rematch this season for Alabama, here’s a look at the Bulldogs (12-7, 1-6) and how they compare to the Crimson Tide.
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Expected starting lineup for Mississippi State
Guard Dashawn Davis (senior): 6ft 2in, 195 lbs. Averages: 8.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, 1.8 turnovers.
Guard Eric Reed (senior): 6-2, 200 lbs. Averages: 5.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.0 blocks, 0.3 turnovers.
Before DJ Jeffries (senior): 6-7, 215 lbs. Averages: 9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.2 turnovers.
Forward Cameron Matthews (junior): 6-7, 225 lbs. Averages: 6.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, 1.4 turnovers.
Tolu Smith Center (senior): 6 feet 11 inches, 245 lbs. Averages: 13.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.6 blocks, 2.5 turnovers.
Smith is Mississippi State’s best player. He is third in the conference in field goal percentage (55.2%) and fifth in rebounds per game (8.1). Still, he wasn’t a problem for Alabama in Game 1. The Crimson Tide limited him to five points and six boards. He shot 1 for 7 from the field.
Mississippi State Rotation
The Bulldogs have had 11 players average 10 minutes or more this season. Shakeel Moore should see a fair amount of time. He’s fifth on the team in minutes with 22.1 per game. He is one of the best in the SEC in steals with 2.4 per game, which ranks him second among all SEC players. Jeffries, Davis and Matthews are all averaging 1.4 steals per game on a Mississippi State defense that is third in the nation in steal percentage, according to KenPom.
How Mississippi State compares to Alabama on scoring, defense and tempo
KenPom tracks adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Mississippi State is much better on defense than on offense. Defensive success is fueled in part by an opportunistic group that can force turnovers. The Bulldogs defense is No. 10 in the nation in turnover percentage.
The Alabama defense could be in line for a big performance, though. It’s one of the best in the country while Mississippi State doesn’t have a strong offense.
Alabama is playing much faster than Mississippi State. KenPom measures the adjusted tempo stat based on the number of possessions per 40 minutes. The Bulldogs are among the slowest teams while Alabama are among the fastest.
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency:
Mississippi State: 104.3 (168th nationally)
Alabama: 115.9 (13th)
Adjusted defensive efficiency:
Mississippi State: 91.1 (11th nationally)
Alabama: 88 (5th)
Tempo
Mississippi State: 64 (321st nationally)
Alabama: 73.7 (4th)
Score prediction
Alabama 72, Mississippi State 58: As long as Alabama doesn’t turn the ball around much, they should win comfortably. Turnovers haven’t been as much of an issue at home recently for the Crimson Tide anyway.
