Aafter Donald Trump Met Kim Jong Un in Singapore in 2018, he appeared sympathetic to the North Korean stance. After having obtained from his counterpart a commitment to the “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”, and feeling well on the path of a “global and complete agreement”, Mr. Trump called for the end of joint military exercises Between America and South Korea, which started in the 1950s. Not only were they expensive, he said, but they were “very provocative”, echoing the propagandists of North Korea.
Reality unfolded when the talks collapsed at their second meeting, in Hanoi the following year. Yet Covid-19 and the lingering hope for rapprochement meant that joint exercises have since been canceled or scaled back. Yoon Suk-Yeol, who took over as South Korea’s president in May, was keen to bring them back. On August 22, the two armed forces will begin their first large-scale exercises since 2017.
Led by South Korean generals, tens of thousands of soldiers from the two countries will be tested until the end of the month, repeating scenarios such as the response to the bombing of a nuclear power plant. This such exercise tests officers’ decision-making skills and the effectiveness of soldiers on the ground in the event of an attack from the north. The objective is to train forces until they instinctively know their missions, explains Chun In-Bum, a Retirement South Korean lieutenant who participated in more than 50 joint exercises.
Exercises are also necessary, says Clint Work of the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington. Conscripts come and go and come and go officers often change roles, so regular training is necessary to ensure everyone knows their duties. Usually, this rotation is staggered, which provides some continuity. But the long gap since previous exercises has undermined readiness. And North Korea developed new conventional weapons during this period. New threats require new training.
Beyond preparation, exercises have several other purposes. The first is to be reassured. North Korea carried out a wave of missile tests earlier this year and is believed to be on the verge of another nuclear weapons test. Joint exercises show the South Korean public that their government takes the threat seriously and that America remains engaged. This helps to allay South Korean fears of abandonment, which fuel calls for an indigenous nuclear weapons program, which America does not want. In addition, the exercises test how ready the South Korean armed forces are ready to take the lead in the military affairs of the peninsula, which the Americans have been wishing since the 1970s.
The drills also act as a deterrent, warning North Korea against probing for weaknesses in the South’s armor. But with deterrence always comes risk: It’s hard to channel military might into a thin-skinned regime without antagonizing it. On August 17, while US and South Korean forces were conducting preliminary exercises, North Korea tested two cruise missiles. General Chun points out that the Allies have kept preparation for small-scale exercises in recent years without drawing attention to them.
There is also the risk of annoying China. America’s presence in what China considers its backyard is already a sore spot. Mr. Yoon managed to get around Chinese anger by avoiding Nancy Pelosi, the president of the American lower room, when she stopped in South Korea after visiting Taiwan in early August. But an old dispute over a US missile defense system deployed in South Korea has recently reignited. And South Korea not only participated in missile defense exercises with America and Japan this month, but also publicized this fact.
When it comes to America and South Korea, neither North Korea nor China have the right to grumble. The exercises are defensive and simply a return to the status quo. That doesn’t mean North Korea won’t decry them as a dangerous provocation. The fiery words from north of the 38th parallel are as much a part of the status quo as live-fire drills. ■