THE INK was barely dry on the peace agreement signed on February 29 by America and the Taliban before the start of the disputes. The agreement states that “up to 5,000” Taliban prisoners will be released before March 10, paving the way for talks between the Taliban and various Afghans over the future of the country. But the agreement is silent which will release. Most Taliban prisoners are in the hands of the Afghan government, with which the Taliban have so far refused to negotiate, on the grounds that it is an illegitimate regime imposed by the United States (although the government is supposed to participate in the talks of March 10). Ashraf Ghani, the president, said he had made no promises to release anyone.
Meanwhile, the two sides resumed fire. They observed a partial but successful ceasefire of seven days before the signing. US and Afghan officials have said this “significant reduction” in violence should continue, but the Taliban has canceled it. On March 3, they attacked as many as 43 government checkpoints in just one of the 34 Afghan provinces, Helmand. On the same day, in another province, Kunduz, at least 15 Afghan soldiers were killed. The next day, just hours after President Donald Trump said he had had “a very good conversation” with the Taliban’s chief negotiator, Abdul Ghani Baradar, US warplanes bombed a Taliban position in support of Afghan troops – the first air strike since the agreement was signed.
All this does not necessarily mean that the agreement is dead. America, after all, says it is keeping its promise to reduce its garrison in Afghanistan from 12,000 to 8,600 troops and to close five bases by mid-July. But as US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper says, implementing the deal will be “a long, windy and bumpy road.”
Part of the problem is the ambiguity of the agreement. Public parts of it make no mention of a ceasefire, beyond suggesting that the inter-Afghan talks could produce one. But there are two “application documents” – in fact, codicils that have not been published. Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, said there was “a detailed package of commitments the Taliban has made about the levels of violence that can occur.” The commander of the American forces in Afghanistan, General Scott Miller, puts it more frankly: “The United States has been very clear about our expectations – the violence must remain low.”
US officials appear to be trying to convince the Afghan government to accept the release of the prisoners in order to advance the inter-Afghan talks. This can still happen, overall keeping the agreement on track. However, the events of the past few days suggest that the agreement will be even more difficult to respect than to conclude. ■
This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the title “Peace with Afghan Characteristics”