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Bitcoin price, still down nearly 70% from its all-time high as lawmakers ponder the future of bitcoin, is still reeling from various crypto industry meltdowns that have sparked serious warnings that other major cryptocurrencies may fail.
Now the bitcoin and crypto market is watching closely for the next US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, due Wednesday, which could mean the Federal Reserve is scaling back its planned interest rate hike. at its September meeting.
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“A drop in inflation could mean that the Fed could reduce its rate hike since the September meeting,” Yuya Hasegawa, bitcoin and crypto market analyst at Bitbank, wrote in email comments.
This week, the latest US jobs report showed employment rising more than twice expectations, somewhat dampening the possibility of a Fed U-turn after the US recorded two consecutive periods of economic contraction, a technical indicator of a recession.
“Of course, the market is not yet fully convinced of this until it sees the July CPI, which should be announced next Wednesday, but inflation will probably decrease in July due to lower prices. oil, and bitcoin will likely benefit from the wait for a slower rate hike.”
The Fed has battled soaring inflation this year, embarking on a series of historic interest rate hikes and scaling back its massive pandemic-era stimulus that has weighed heavily on bitcoin markets. , crypto and stocks.
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“If the Fed does indeed blink and reverse the rate hike at the expected pace, the market will likely view it as a positive catalyst,” Cumberland, a Chicago-based market maker, wrote in a report that polled investors who predicted the Bitcoin price will rebound to $32,000 this year, potentially adding $180 billion to Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
“It’s fascinating that even after a massive sell-off, at a time when the market motto was to risk it all, the average respondent was still overwhelmingly optimistic.”
Cumberland analysts see a strong possibility that the Fed will backtrack on its hawkish agenda in the coming months.
“In our opinion, it’s not that strange; the shape of the forward curve already predicts a chance of a rate cut in 2023.”