On February 4, 2004, I climbed to the top of my desk in the Wesley Clark’s open plan office for the President’s campaign. This being somewhat unusual, even in the chaos of a country headquarters, the room quickly subsided.
With all the enthusiasm I could muster, I informed the Clark team that, from now on, we are all volunteers. Despite its third place in New Hampshire, second in a few other states and first in Oklahoma primary, our campaign was dying. Our polls were going down and the money was drying up; we needed every penny to keep the lights on and the candidate on the go. Staff salaries were suspended, as were other campaign luxuries, such as advertising and field work.
About 10 days ago, I guess a senior staff member at Joe Biden’s campaign headquarters was looking at his desk with suspicion. Things seemed a little dark. But I wouldn’t be surprised if she jumped on this thing on Sunday with a very different message for the team: “Us. Are. Return.”
Head for the lifeboats a few days ago
Presidential campaigns are like small boats on the high seas, shaken by massive waves of political dynamics. A candidacy that seems dead in water in December, like that of John Kerry in the 2004 cycle, may head for nomination in March. And a smooth head runner, like Hillary Clinton in 2008, can be capsized by reality when voters start to make their way to caucuses during the Iowa winter.
In the 2020 race, moderate Democrats like me were heading to the lifeboats last week. Obviously, no one seemed to be in a good position to arrest Senator Bernie Sanders. Although at least two-thirds of Democratic voters were against him, the other candidates divided the rest of the vote in a way that seemed likely to give him a major lead in the promised delegates.
It is impossible to overstate how scary it was for many Democrats. We would consider Trump’s second term as a disaster, with his right-wing demagoguery, bigotry, isolationism, climate denial, disregard for the rule of law and his obsession with loyalty and personal glory threatening our future. unprecedentedly. And when we look at Bernie Sanders, we see Trump’s path to the White House and the best chances for Republicans to win a majority in the House.
If Sanders were to win the nomination, his proud connection to socialism and his record of extremism for 50 years would be enough to condemn his chances. Add to that his unpopular campaign proposals double the size of government, sharply raise taxes on the middle class, and take out private health insurance for 180 million Americans, and you give the GOP a deadly arsenal of equipment to use against Sanders and other Democrats on the bulletin. vote.
Roller coaster performance: It’s late. Can Joe Biden return to South Carolina-Super Tuesday?
But the political winds may have changed. On Saturday, about half of the Democrats in South Carolina voted for Biden, with Sanders almost 30 points behind. This is important because it will slow Sanders down before the huge Super Tuesday primary. And that could lead voters in these states to do what moderate candidates refuse to do: settle on one to advance the banner.
Because South Carolina held the first primary with a diverse constituency, it was the first important test for Sanders, and he failed. The Vermont senator narrowly lost in Iowa and won by a hair in his neighbor of New Hampshire, but these two electorates are almost entirely white. He won easily in Nevada, which is diverse, but he has always benefited from undemocratic methods in caucus states. Time-consuming meetings reward candidates with staunch supporters and penalize those who rely on voters with work or family obligations that could prevent them from spending hours at their polling stations.
Plenty of time to catch up with Sanders
African Americans, who make up more than 60% of South Carolina’s Democratic electorate, voted overwhelmingly for the first time in this electoral cycle. And they spoke loud and clear while rejecting the old favorite. Additionally, the results in South Carolina mean that Biden has overtaken Sanders in the cumulative popular vote of the four contests to date.
Now we go to the 15 places that vote next. While the big states of California and Texas have received the most attention from experts, states like Alabama, Arkansas and North Carolina will also vote, and they tend to follow the example of Carolina from the South – so they probably won’t be nice to Sanders. He will, of course, get his share of victories, with as many moderates still in the race. But this dynamic could also change quickly.
TheA flop for his brand: Democrats condemn court by supporting Bernie Sanders. His ideas are toxic outside of blue America.
If the rest of the pack shrinks after Tuesday, the rest of the pack may consolidate a much larger share of the non-Sanders vote in future contests. And while Super Tuesday is a major marker, about two-thirds of the delegates required for nomination will still be up for grabs after this vote. So there will be plenty of opportunities for a Sanders opponent to catch it.
Unfortunately, consolidation means that in several campaign offices this week, employees will step onto their desks to report the bad news. But luckily for the majority of Democrats, who are eager to prevent a democratic socialist revolutionary from grabbing the top of the rankings in the fall, this will make this race a much more competitive race for nomination.
Matt Bennett, executive vice president and co-founder of Third Way, has participated in five presidential campaigns, including as Clark’s director of communications for President 2004. Follow him on Twitter: @ThirdWayMattB