Last season, the Titans earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC thanks to an effective offense and a defense that made enough plays when needed. It’s a formula they used to great effect under Mike Vrabel and was to more or less continue this year, especially with the return of Derrick Henry.
The Colts, meanwhile, spent much of last season looking like a potential Darkhorse Super Bowl contender before a disastrous end to the season saw them miss the playoffs altogether. Indianapolis addressed what it saw as the root cause of those struggles by trading Carson Wentz and replacing him with Matt Ryan.
The results have been disappointing at best so far. Tennessee is 1-2 and Indianapolis is 1-1-1. Both sit behind the AFC South Jaguars, and both have a hugely important game this weekend…against each other. Here are the stats that will go a long way in determining Sunday’s outcome.
NOTE: All grades through week 3.
Titans at Colts
When the Titans have the ball…
It’s time for Tennessee to get a little more aggressive in early downs. The Titans have slipped to transmit just 37.3% of first plays this year, the third-lowest rate in the league only behind the extremely heavyweight Browns and 49ers. That’s despite the first try being statistically Ryan Tannehill’s best try so far this season. He seeks to work the ball down while maintaining high efficiency.
Ryan Tannehill this season |
1st try |
All other stockings |
Yards Per Attempt |
9.5< |
7.5 |
TD-Int |
2-0 |
1-3 |
Passer ranking |
125.2< |
67.4 |
Expected points added by dropback |
+0.36< |
-0.03 |
>> NFL Top 5
The Colts, meanwhile, allow the fifth-highest completion percentage and sixth-highest yards per attempt on opponents’ first pitches.
Tannehill should also be able to be a bit more aggressive in this game. The Colts have the fourth-worst sack rate (3.7%) and fourth-worst squeezing rate (27.9%) in the NFL. Tannehill averaged just 2.24 seconds to throw this season, second fastest among qualifying quarterbacks; only Jimmy Garoppolo got rid of the ball faster. The Colts have been very good at limiting throws from deep – only 12 passes completed from 10 yards or more down the field, tied for the least in the league – but Tannehill needs to shake things up given the time given to him .
No Titans offensive overview is complete without discussing Derrick Henry, who finally got on the right track last week with 143 yards from scrimmage, more than his first two weeks combined. Normally we talk about his rushing chops, but Henry had five receptions — one behind his career high — and all five came out of the shotgun. The Colts defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in receptions and receiving yards allowed for running backs off the shotgun.
When the Colts have the ball…
The Colts’ biggest problem has been the pressure. They cannot apply it in defense, as we have just said, and they cannot prevent it in attack.
- matt ryan took 12 sacks, fourth in the league, and was sacked on 9.3% of his losses, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
- Ryan, who has never been the most elusive player, takes a sack almost 32% of the time he is pressured. Only Justin Fields was worse.
- Ryan produces -0.80 expected points added per recoil when under pressure. Only Garoppolo and Mac Jones were worse.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Titans rank in the bottom twelve in the NFL in rushing ratio, and after sacking Daniel Jones five times in Week 1, they’ve only had two sacks in the last two. weeks.
Much of Ryan’s ups and downs in Indy have been down to his tendency to hold the ball too long.
Matt Ryan Time to kick off this season |
2.5 seconds or less |
More than 2.5 seconds |
TD-Int |
2-0 |
1-4 |
Passer ranking |
106.6 |
51.1 |
Percent off target |
3.6% |
14.5% |
There’s more good news for Ryan and the Colts. The Titans gave up a 110.6 passer rating on passes thrown in 2.5 seconds or less, seventh-worst in the league. Having a healthy Michael Pittman Jr. is also a big help. In two games, Pittman Jr.’s 5.5 receptions per game on those fast throws is fourth in the league. Last season, Pittman Jr. had 16 receptions for 154 yards and two touchdowns in two games against Tennessee, and we should expect another big game for him on Sunday.
Like Henry with the Titans offense, we have to talk about Jonathan Taylor when discussing the Colts offense. Taylor only managed to reach 100 yards from scrimmage in four of 17 games last year; he has already failed to reach the mark twice in three games this year. But this game could mark a major opportunity for Taylor to get back on track.
Taylor is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on carries near the end (outside of where the tackles block). The Titans, meanwhile, are the worst team in the league to defend this area, allowing 8.0 yards per carry on those carries. Taylor is dangerous from anywhere on the pitch, but making touches to get to the edge – against this defense – makes it even more so.
How to watch
Date: Sunday October 2 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: Fox | Flow: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports app
Odds: Foals -3.5, O/U 43