49ers vs. Broncos odds
49ers odds | -1.5 |
Broncos odds | +1.5 |
Moneyline | -122 / +104 |
More less | 45 |
Time | Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET |
TV | NBC |
Odds via FanDuel. |
NFL Picks
Brandon Anderson: Sunday Night Football brings us two teams looking at the barrel of a very different season than they envisioned a few weeks ago.
The 49ers are missing Trey Lance and Elijah Mitchell and are stuck firing Jimmy Garoppolo with a worse roster. The Broncos took little offense to Russell Wilson and Co., while Nathaniel Hackett made a barrage of errors that indicate he may not be ready for the job.
San Francisco’s defense has been exceptional, and that smacks of trouble given how tough things have been for Denver’s helpless offense. Wilson has been great as an underdog and at home in prime time, but is he still the same guy we’ve grown accustomed to? He can barely move, and he also has to take fouls for all that disorganization. Garoppolo did very well last week, but Wilson’s attack is in trouble.
I loved the 49ers as underdogs when the lines opened up, but apparently everyone else did too. Money knocked down the line, but I still love them.
You might not like Jimmy G, but the numbers do: Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan, because anything shorter than the three-point favorites is 13-3 ATS.
Cody Gogin: The Broncos and Niners’ Sunday Night Football game total seems like a number for two mediocre offensive teams, but that’s not the case here. Denver and San Francisco have offenses that can move the ball, and neither defense is the ’85 Bears.
On the surface, it doesn’t look like the Russell Wilson era in Denver is still working, but they’ve been productive on offense despite the scoreboard not showing it.
The Broncos lead the league in available yards gained in two weeks, mostly behind their absurd opener against the Seahawks. Last week, Denver gained over 78% of its yards and should have scored 30 points. The Broncos would have scored more than the 16 they scored and probably would have won the game, had it not been for the two red-zone fumbles and four field goal attempts.
Against Seattle last week, the 49ers had a similar experience. They gained 68.1 percent of their available yards and had 33 offensive points expected, even though starter Trey Lance suffered an injury midgame.
With Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, the 49ers have been one of the most effective offenses in the league in recent years. Among quarterbacks with 600+ games since 2019, Garoppolo ranks sixth in the league with .218 adjusted EPA per game.
Without Justin Simmons and with Patrick Surtain and many other questionable ones, this Denver defense is not at its best. This should allow San Francisco to move the ball both through the air and on the ground.
Both of these teams have a lot more attacking talent than the current numbers show. My projected total for this game is 49.4 points, so I’d take that up to 47.5 points.
Sam Farley: It already feels like it’s been a long season for the 49ers with injuries starting to mount, both in the backfield and especially at quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo’s new contract now looks like a masterstroke.
Reintroducing their old starting QB may not make them any more dynamic, but we know how they play when in charge and running the clock. On Sunday Night Football, San Francisco takes on a seemingly chaotic Broncos team for two weeks.
Last week at Mile High, the atmosphere was toxic and things won’t get any easier for Nathaniel Hackett with the Niners in town. It’s a powerful offense that we’ve seen demolish the Seahawks, 27-7, while the Broncos’ offense has yet to be motorized, scoring just 32 points so far this season.
Going back to last season, the 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 4-0 in games after a win. They are a superior team at all levels and have considerably better coaching. If the line remains under -3 points, then there should be no doubt about their ability to cover it.
Simon Hunter: And just like that, everything changed for the 49ers.
With Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback, we know exactly what we’re going to get from this team. Not only does San Francisco have a top-five offense in the NFC with Jimmy G., but it showed us that they might have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
I can definitely see this unit giving a Denver offense that struggled against Seattle and Houston some trouble. Russell Wilson hasn’t run as much as he has the past two seasons, but he’ll run for his life against a 49ers front seven led by Nick Bosa.
I like the first half play here since Kyle Shanahan tends to write the perfect game scripts to start games. I see him setting up Garoppolo to get off to a good start after his first full week of training as a starter.
Charlie DiSturco: For the Broncos’ last primetime game, I wrote a best bet in favor of Albert Okwuegbunam’s receiving yards on the prop. I’m back, two weeks later, with the exact same part.
Don’t worry about the bagel he put up in Week 2 against the Texans. This game was a disaster from start to finish offensively.
Okwuegbunam is the fourth most targeted Bronco and plays nearly 60% of the snaps. Courtland Sutton will continue to get the majority of the eyeballs, but it’s also opening up for Al O underneath.
Tack on injured KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy in Week 3, and we could see the Broncos relying more on their tight end. Even if they play, they will probably be limited to some degree, and that will open up more opportunities for Al O to succeed.
Last season, as the Broncos’ TE2, Okwuegbunam topped the current line of 23.5 in six of the 13 games he played. He’s now the clear No. 1 and should see more use as Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett get more comfortable.
I expect the Broncos to make changes to both play and approach on Sunday night. There is a clear problem, but I trust Wilson to change things. This number is just too low for me not to jump on board.
For the second time in three weeks, we are riding with the great Al O. under the bright lights!