That’s it. Super Bowl LVIII. We’ve reached the end of the 2023 season and all that’s left is a showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs for a Lombardi Trophy. While this match marks the end of a season, it also concludes a profitable series for us here in this small internet betting window.
I finished the regular season on a good note, with 29 more ATS wins than losses. I was also 9-3 ATS and throughout the playoffs, so we were mostly able to keep the good times going. Of course, it’s always appreciated for those who followed and I hope I was able to help you increase your bankroll. All that remains is to choose who will win (and cover) the Super Bowl. Take advantage of the offseason!
Record 2023
Playoffs
ATS: 9-3
LM: 9-3
Regular season
ATS Locks of the Week: 45-45-1
ATS: 145-116-11
LM: 174-98
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus Odds.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Nickelodeon; streaming on Paramount+)
|
San Francisco 49ers |
-2 |
Over 47.5 |
|
Kansas City Chiefs |
+2 |
Less than 47.5 |
I only picked one of these two remaining teams to go into this game and it wasn’t the Kansas City Chiefs. I was on the other side of Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship as I stuck with my preseason pick, the Baltimore Ravens, winning the conference. As you and I both know, lining up against Mahomes is a scary proposition and he burned us a week ago. We don’t make the same mistake twice.
While the Niners are certainly a talented club, it appears that more advantages are tilted in favor of the Chiefs. They have the best defense, the best quarterback and the best coach in my opinion. Kansas City has proven itself by winning back-to-back playoff games on the road, while the Niners have had to dig themselves out of holes playing at home. On a neutral site and a stage that Kansas City has become very familiar with in recent seasons – Allegiant Stadium, home of the AFC West rivals Las Vegas Raiders – it appears there will be more obstacles on the way to San Francisco. .
I believe the key to this matchup will depend on how well the 49ers linebackers (especially Fred Warner) can defend against Travis Kelce, who has been the lifeblood of the offense in the last two playoff victories. While San Francisco has given up the seventh-fewest yards per reception and the second-fewest yards after catches per reception to tight ends this year, Kelce has historically destroyed this defense. Mahomes is 20 of 24 for 255 yards and a touchdown targeting Kelce in the three games he has played against the Niners in his career.
I’m also a little surprised that KC is an underdog in this matchup, but that plays into our hands since the underdog has covered the last three Super Bowls and 15 of the last 22. Mahomes is also 9-0. -1 ATS in his underdog career away from Kansas City and is 3-0 straight in his playoff underdog career. When it comes to head-to-head practices, Andy Reid is 3-0 against the spread and SU against Kyle Shanahan and all of those wins have been by double digits.
Projected score: Chiefs 24, 49ers 20
The choice: Leaders +2
