The final game of the 2023 NFL regular season is here, as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs face off in Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday. The 49ers came in as favorites, even though they have yet to cover the spread in the playoffs. As for the Chiefs, they were impressive, going 3-0 ATS and SU even though they were underdogs in the divisional round and the AFC Championship Game.
It’s Patrick Mahomes versus Brock Purdy. One is poised to rival Tom Brady as the greatest of all time, while we’re still discovering the other. Is Purdy a “game manager”? I don’t think this term is a negative descriptor. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league when it comes to throwing with anticipation, and he has a chance to forever change the narrative around him on Sunday.
Before we move on to choosing, here’s how to look.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Nickelodeon; streaming on Paramount+)
49ers (-2), O/U 47.5 (via SportsLine consensus)
Is Mahomes as an underdog an automatic bet? As a Dog, he has a 9-3 SU and a 10-1-1 ATS. Those grades rank first among 320 quarterbacks who have made 10 starts as an underdog since 1970. Vegas gave us the more money Chiefs against the Philadelphia Eagles last year, and those who didn’t take it looked stupid. I already bet on the Chiefs, but am I 100% sold?
Mahomes is playing great football, but the Chiefs defense has gotten this team to this point. Now they have to face one of the most unique offenses in the NFL. On opening night of the Super Bowl, I wanted to know how Kansas City’s defensive starters planned to stop the timing routes and this particular pace the 49ers offense can enter. I spoke with Trent McDuffie, Nick Bolton and Justin Reid, who all said it came down to being physical in coverage and tackling, and that it would take a collective effort.
I think San Francisco is one of the best teams in the league, but the 49ers haven’t looked like they’re going to be heavyweights in the playoffs. There’s a reason so many people are surprised to be favored over the Chiefs – who have dominated the playoffs. During Super Wild Card Weekend, the Chiefs defense held the Miami Dolphins to their season’s worst in points (7), yards per play (4.5) and third downs (1 of 12). Against the Buffalo Bills in the next round, Kansas City held Buffalo to its fewest yards per attempt (4.8) since 2021. In the AFC Championship win over the Baltimore Ravens, the Chiefs limited Baltimore to a season-low and season-low 81 rushing yards. hour of possession (10:30 p.m.) in Lamar Jackson career. It’s crazy!
I’m interested to know how Steve Spagnuolo will take the lead on Sunday. Purdy had 13 touchdowns and one interception against a man this season, averaging a league-high 10.2 yards per attempt. Blitzing Purdy isn’t a fantastic idea either, as he averages a league-high 10.5 yards per attempt. Containing Christian McCaffrey is one thing, but when it comes to containing the 49ers passing attack, the Chiefs should try to force Purdy to hold on to the ball longer than he wants. Holding the coverage – whether it’s man or zone – for two extra seconds could be the Spagnuolo is going to throw several looks at Kyle Shanahan, but keep an eye on Purdy’s time to throw.
Expect a close game until the fourth quarter, where the Chiefs defense makes a stand.
Projected score: Chiefs 24-21
The choice: Leaders +2
Who wins the Chiefs against the 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-win? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. 49ers spread hits the hardest, all from the expert who is an incredible 22-5 on picks involving San Francisco, and find out.
