The 2023 NFL regular season is almost over, which means it’s time for the real games to begin. The 14 playoff spots are finalized and the race to Super Bowl LVIII and the Lombardi Trophy is about to begin.
Upset and surprises are all part of the experience, so it would be foolish to count on just about anything. But here’s how we’d rank all the tournament contenders, from least to most likely to hoist the trophy on Super Bowl Sunday:
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Baker Mayfield deserves credit for exceeding expectations as a tryout quarterback, and Todd Bowles’ defense has quietly clamped down last month, particularly against the run. But their old-school brand of ball control has been more scattered outside the NFC South, and Bowles’ group tends to be painfully conservative in key spots.
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Mike Tomlin once again pulled a rabbit out of his hat, navigating personnel turmoil and quarterback injuries to keep Pittsburgh above water. But as sharp as Mason Rudolph has been coming off the bench, this is the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential, and now the defense’s best difference maker, TJ Watt, is banged up. They will still be disjointed, as always.
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Has there ever been a team that started 10-1 the year after a Super Bowl bid, only to look so deflated? There are some special players on this roster, but all the spice of their 2022 run has disappeared in an increasingly listless 1-5 stretch to end the year. The defense can’t stop anyone, but maybe there’s hope for Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown and Co. to rediscover magic on the road.
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Not so different from fellow wild card Rams, they weren’t expected to stay relevant while rebuilding with a slimmed-down defense. And Joe Barry’s unit certainly remains a liability. But QB Jordan Love has been such a revelation alongside a quiet group of fast young players. Paired with the ground game of Aaron Jones and Matt LaFleur, they can play the role of spoiler.
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Joe Flacco has been a story of the season, coming off the street to throw it left and right, bringing an authority sorely lacking to Kevin Stefanski’s passing attack. Will this hold up against playoff defenses? Maybe. Maybe not. But Jim Schwartz’s own stingy unit, led by Myles Garrett and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, might be opportunistic enough to offset the QB risk.
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Even CJ Stroud’s biggest fans couldn’t have expected the rookie QB to do so much for Houston so quickly. His pocket presence far exceeds his years, and DeMeco Ryans has always gotten more out of his defense in transition than expected. Are they still a year away from a deep run? Maybe. But with such youthful swagger, you should never say never.
8. Rams (10-7)
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Matthew Stafford seemed destined to break through behind an uncertain line early in 2023, but Sean McVay’s offense has been humming since a mid-November bye, helping Los Angeles go 7-1 during that stretch (with the only overtime loss to the Ravens). Besides Aaron Donald, they still have a makeshift “D”. But with Puka Nacua and their weapons, they can play penalties.
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There may not be a more dynamic team in the dance. When operating at full health and full speed, Mike McDaniel’s all-star lineup can light up the scoreboard, with the Tua Tagovailoa-Tyreek Hill connection being among the best in the NFL. The problem is that they all get hit at the wrong time, leaving Tua to face major questions without a fully intact supporting cast.
*Note: Miami closes out Week 18 against the Bills on “Sunday Night Football.”
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They’ve been a different animal at home and on the road, with Jared Goff prone to turnovers against aggressive fronts, but when they’re firing on all cylinders, few clubs are as confident and controlled. Dan Campbell’s aggression on the sideline is eternal, and his sturdy front helps set up both a steady run and play-action offense.
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Team USA is back atop the NFC East, and we’ve seen repeatedly this year that when Dak Prescott and Co. click, there may not be a prettier offense in the game. Prescott still deserves MVP buzz for the way he’s picked up the pocket as his domain, with CeeDee Lamb virtually unstoppable and playmakers like Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland doing their own ball-hawking on the other side. But alas, the team of Prescott and Mike McCarthy still has to overcome the obstacle on the big stage.
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Andy Reid’s offense is typically video game-like in its creativity and execution, which hasn’t been the case in 2023. But for all the frustration Patrick Mahomes has shown, the QB practically lives and breathes football playoffs, a bit like Tom Brady in his prime. And their Chris Jones-led defense has been nasty up front – top five in sacks in the NFL.
3. Bills (10-6)*
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They struggled to close out key contests earlier this year, but it would be difficult to find a more dangerous offensive trio than Josh Allen, James Cook and Stefon Diggs. They have some hurdles to overcome in January, but add an improved defense led by Sean McDermott and featuring ballhawk Rasul Douglas, and they could be the contender no one else wants to play.
*Note: Buffalo closes Week 18 against the Dolphins on “Sunday Night Football.”
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It’s no coincidence that Kyle Shanahan has reached the NFC title game three times since 2019. A fourth trip wouldn’t surprise anyone, as Brock Purdy is the most poised and quickest playmaker Shanahan has ever deployed. In addition to having elite all-around weapons, they still have an imposing defense. Their key will be to identify the first leads.
1. Ravens (13-4)
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They have all the ingredients of a true championship contender: a dynamic QB in Lamar Jackson who throws the ball with effortless accuracy and can escape trouble with his legs, an experienced coach in John Harbaugh who has already been on the big scene, and a fast, physical defense that can affect the ball at all levels. They should be favored in every match.
