Saturday night’s Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts game is one for all the marbles. The winner goes to the playoffs and the loser goes home.
It’s about as simple as that, barring a tie, but let’s not get into that doomsday scenario yet.
This game is a perfect entry into the playoffs and is a rare occurrence. It’s just the 31st winning game in the final week of the regular season in NFL history, and the 11th since 2000, according to Pro Football researcher Ivan Urena.
These are matches featuring a ‘win-in’ scenario for both teams, either early last week or at kick-off depending on previous results from the day.
This is the first winner-take-all regular season game in Texans history and only the third for the Colts, who beat the Titans in 2018 and the Rams in 1967 in do-or-die games.
Former Jets defensive end Marvin Washington described these games best after the Jets beat the Dolphins in a winner-take-all game in 1991.
“We may be the ugliest girl at the ball…but we’re going to put on our ruby red lipstick and our pumps and our mini skirt, and we’re not going to stand against the wall. We’re going to dance ” Washington said (via the New York Times).
Winner-takes-all games have given fans plenty of reasons to rejoice in recent years. “Beastquake” won’t happen if the Seahawks don’t first beat the Rams in a winner-take-all game to advance to the tournament. The 2011 Giants needed a win-win game before their run to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys lost three straight winning games from 2011-2013, and don’t forget their 44-6 loss to the Eagles in 2008, another all-or-nothing game for both teams. Robert Griffin III helped Washington lead the way to the playoffs as a rookie in 2012, capped by a win over the Cowboys. Cam Newton performed a superman act in overcoming a car accident and subsequent back injury in 2014, culminating in a winner-take-all game to help Carolina rebound from a 3-8-1 start to advance for the playoffs.
The fact is that winner-takes-all games offer a unique story. Best case scenario for the league and fans, we would be treated to something like the 2021 Chargers-Raiders do-or-die game when they were nearly tied.
Here’s a look at the last 10 winner-take-all matches:
It became a win-win game based on how the games played out earlier in the day, namely a Colts loss as a heavy favorite to the Jaguars. There was also a scenario in which a Raiders-Chargers tie would result in both teams entering and eliminating the Steelers. It almost happened too after a furious comeback from the Chargers and the clock ticking in OT. However, a 10-yard run by Josh Jacobs put Las Vegas within FG range, leading to Daniel Carlson’s game-winning field goal.
2018: Colts 33, Titans 17
Andrew Luck threw three touchdowns to easily beat Blaine Gabbert, who was playing in place of injured starter Marcus Mariota. This game led to Luck’s final career playoff appearance before retiring.
Cam Newton bounced back from a car accident, a back injury and a 3-8-1 start to lead Carolina to the playoffs after a 31-point win over the Falcons in Week 17. They also won a playoff game.
2013: Eagles 24, Cowboys 22
Kyle Orton threw a late INT replacing Tony Romo who was out with a back injury, sealing the Cowboys’ fate. It was the third year in a row that they lost a win-or-goal game in the final week.
Aaron Rodgers returned from a broken collarbone and threw one of the most iconic passes of his career, a 48-yard touchdown to Randall Cobb on fourth-and-8 in the final minute to win the game.
2012: Washington 28, Dallas 18
Robert Griffin III completed Washington’s turnaround from a 3-6 start to the NFC East title, winning seven straight games to end the season, including a 28-18 victory over Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Rookie Alfred Morris was the hero with 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
2011: Giants 31, Cowboys 14
Eli Manning threw three touchdowns, including a 74-yarder to Victor Cruz, who had 178 receiving yards in the victory. Dallas lost four of its last five games to miss the playoffs, while this victory sparked New York’s Super Bowl run.
2010: Seahawks 16, Rams 6
The Seahawks became the first division champions with a losing record in NFL history, defeating rookie Sam Bradford and the Rams with Charlie Whitehurst starting at QB in place of the injured Matt Hasselbeck. Seattle hosted a playoff game and beat the Saints the following week – a game known for Marshawn Lynch’s “beast shake.”
2008: Eagles 44, Cowboys 6
It became a do-or-die game shortly before kickoff after losses to Tampa Bay and Chicago. It turned into a blowout, a 44-6 Eagles victory in a game featuring Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo, as well as Terrell Owens against his former team. This still stands as the Eagles’ greatest victory in the history of the rivalry.
2008: Chargers 52, Broncos 21
The Chargers reached the playoffs at 8-8 after a 4-8 start thanks to a Week 17 rout of the Broncos, who blew a three-game lead with three weeks remaining. Philip Rivers beat Jay Cutler in a QB rivalry that had some bad blood, while LaDainian Tomlinson scored three touchdowns in the victory.
