The 2023 regular season is now over and only 14 teams retain their hopes of winning the Lombardi Trophy. After a wild Week 18, the playoff picture is set and a jam-packed Super Wild-Card weekend is on deck, starting Saturday and continuing through Monday night. Of course, two teams you won’t see are the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, who are enjoying a first-round bye as the No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC , respectively. As for the rest of the playoff participants, they will start competing against each other shortly.
As we turn our attention to the opening weekend of the playoffs, let’s get our take on the opening lines to see if there’s anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top (make sure (you can consult the entire playoffs). schedule here).
Super Wild Card Weekend Early Odds
(All lines via Caesars Sportsbook; all Sunday games unless otherwise noted)
Notable movement, trends
Browns at Texans (Saturday)
The Texans became AFC South champions with their victory over Indy on Saturday and Jacksonville’s loss to the Titans on Sunday. They now host this playoff showdown against the Joe Flacco-led Browns, but will do so as a home dog since oddsmakers have Cleveland as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Texans are 2-2 ATS as home underdogs this season and just 4-5 ATS at NRG Stadium overall. That said, the Browns are a different team on the road than they are at home. They were among the worst bets in the league against Cleveland players, finishing the regular season with a 2-5-1 road record against the spread. That includes going 1-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Dolphins at Chiefs (Saturday)
The Chiefs will effectively be coming off a bye week as Andy Reid opted to retain key starters like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in Week 18, while the Dolphins were scheduled to play their starters against Buffalo with the division still in play. the air. Ultimately, Miami lost to the Bills and fell to the No. 6 seed, which set up a road trip to Kansas City (the first return visit to Arrowhead for Tyreek Hill). The Chiefs are favorites with 3.5 points against a Dolphins team which is rather struggling. They lost key rushers and didn’t have Jaylen Waddle or Raheem Mostert in the regular season finale. While Arrowhead has a reputation as one of the best downfield advantages in the NFL, that hasn’t exactly translated against the spread recently. The Chiefs are just 4-4 ATS at home this season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 4-3 ATS on the road. The weather is also expected to play a role in this match, with temperatures expected to be in the single digits.
Steelers at Bills
The Bills moved up to second in the AFC and are the AFC East champions after beating the Dolphins in Week 18 and can now host a playoff game this weekend. They will host the Steelers, who also clinched their spot in Week 18. This game is currently the largest gap in the playoff slate, with Buffalo being a 9.5-point favorite. This season, the Bills have been dynamite at Highmark Stadium, where they have a 7-1 record and an average margin of victory of 14.8 points. That said, Buffalo is just 4-4 ATS at home, which opens the door for Pittsburgh to possibly keep that number within limits. The Steelers were 5-3 ATS on the road this regular season.
Packers at Cowboys
The Cowboys won in Week 18 to crown themselves NFC East champions for the third time in the last six seasons and will now host the Packers in the wild-card round. This game pits Mike McCarthy against his old team the Packers, which adds an extra touch of spice to the game. Similar to Buffalo above, Dallas has been one of the best teams in the league at home this year, so it’s no surprise to see them as 7.5-point favorites here. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS at AT&T Stadium this year and have a league-best average winning margin of 21.5 points at home. Green Bay lost 4-5 ATS against Lambeau Field this season.
Aries at Lions
This is arguably the most anticipated game of the playoffs with Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit to face his former team the Lions in their first home playoff game since 1993. In doing so, he will be an underdog as the Lions are at 3 points. favorite against the Rams. Ford Field has been a friendly venue for Dan Campbell’s team this season as they are 5-3 ATS at home. However, the Rams were one of the better bets as a road team this year as they sported a 5-3-1 ATS record away from SoFi Stadium. This is the highest total on the playoff slate at 51.5 and for good reason. The Over had the Lions going 11-6 this regular season (tied for best in the league) and the Rams going 9-8.
Eagles among the buccaneers
The first round of the playoffs concludes at Raymon James Stadium for a showdown between the Eagles and Bucs. Philadelphia limped along, losing five of its last six games and losing the conference’s top seed and first place in the division. The team is now also dealing with injuries to Jalen Hurts and AJBrown. Despite all that, they are 2.5-point road favorites against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay had an opposite end to the regular season winning five of its last six games, but it is also limping into the playoffs with Baker Mayfield at less than 100%. The Bucs are also a risky bet at home as they were 3-5 ATS in Tampa this year and that includes a 1-2 ATS record as a home dog. The Eagles were 3-3-1 ATS as road favorites in the regular season.
