As the 2023 regular season ends on Sunday, 18 of the NFL’s 32 teams have completed their seasons. That means it’s time to turn our attention to the league’s coaching carousel where there are currently five vacancies: the Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers and Falcons. ‘Atlanta with the team firing Arthur Smith on Sunday night just after midnight with the departing commanders by Ron Rivera Monday.
Current openings
The Panthers made Frank Reich the first coach fired after letting him go Nov. 27 after Carolina started the year 1-10 in his first season at the helm. Reich’s 11-game tenure is the shortest with a team since Pete McCulley lasted nine games with the San Francisco 49ers in 1978. Carolina finished the season with the worst record in the NFL, 2-15, and the league’s worst offense (13.9 points per game) in quarterback Bryce Young’s first rookie season in 2023.
The Raiders fired Josh McDaniels on Halloween after a 3-5 start. He went 9-16 in two seasons as head coach of the Raiders. McDaniels would have lost the lockerOh as his players argued over his leadership approach. Las Vegas went 5-4 under linebackers and interim head coach Antonio Pierce to finish the season 8-9 overall. Their 15.9 points per game allowed in Weeks 9-18 under Pierce ranks among the lowest in the NFL.
The Chargers fired Brandon Staley on Dec. 15 after a 5-9 start that included a 63-21 blowout in his final game in charge. Los Angeles was without quarterback Justin Herbert, who was out with a fractured index finger to his right, throwing hand. The Chargers ranked 28th in scoring and total defense under Staley in 2023, a far cry from the days when he coached the league’s best scoring and total defense as defensive coordinator with the Rams in 2020.
The Atlanta Falcons fired Arthur Smith following the conclusion of the final day of the regular season on January 7 after finishing 7-10 in each of his first three seasons. This streak made Smith the first Falcons head coach to lose 10 games in three consecutive seasons. Game management was not his strong suit this season, as Atlanta suffered four losses while leading in the final minute of a game this season. That’s the most by any team since the 2015 New York Giants.
His biggest failure as head coach is resisting the idea of featuring the three offensive players the team has drafted in the top 10 in each of the last three drafts: tight end Kyle Pitts (fourth overall pick in 2021), wide receiver Drake London (eighth overall pick in 2022) and running back Bijan Robinson (eighth overall pick in 2023). In the past, Smith has said his job as an NFL head coach is to find a way to win and not play fantasy football. However, using three of the team’s most talented playmakers certainly could have helped an offense that averaged 19.6 points per game in 2023, the ninth-worst offense in the league.
Ron Rivera’s time with the Washington Commanders is now over as he has been released by the franchise. The team went 4-13 this season in the first year of the Commanders’ new ownership group led by Josh Harris. The Commanders’ defense, on Rivera’s side of the ball, was the worst in the NFL across the board in 2023.
Potential openings
In each of the last 11 years, there have been at least five new head coaches. As for teams that could join the Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Falcons and Commanders with openings, two teams come to mind: the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears.
There is a real possibility that Bill Belichick will enter the offseason without his longtime title, since 2000, as head coach of the New England Patriots. The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported that the Patriots have a meeting scheduled for next week between owner Robert Kraft, team president Jonathan Kraft and Belichick to determine Belichick’s future with the team. It appears he wants to continue coaching, but Russini also wrote that some who work for the team are “expecting changes” and are starting to network elsewhere. In addition to the Commanders, the Raiders, who recently hired and fired his former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, are interested in meeting with him and potentially bringing the architect of “The Patriot Way” out west.
Both the losses (13) and points per game (13.9) are the Patriots’ worst since the 1992 season, when they were 2-14. The following season, New England fired head coach Dick MacPherson and hired Bill Parcells.
Earlier this season, New England became the first team to lose three straight games with 10 or fewer points allowed since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals, nearly 100 years ago. The team has been shut out twice this season. During the Brady era, the Patriots were shut out twice in 20 seasons, including the playoffs.
Given that Belichick has won an NFL-record six Super Bowls for New England, he has had some breathing room in the post-Brady era, but outside of a 10-7 year in 2021, New England had a losing record in three of four. years since Brady left. Between the lack of on-field success and poor roster construction that forced Belichick to engage in multiple spending sprees in free agency to mask poor draft classes, his time may be up in New England.
The Chicago Bears could also be looking for a new head coach if they decide to move on from head coach Matt Eberflus, who is 10-24 in two seasons at the helm. Eberflus cut his teeth as the former defensive coordinator of the Indianapolis Colts, but his Bears defense was the worst in the NFL on third down, allowing opponents to convert first downs at a rate of 43.8 percent. .
His coaching job in Chicago also failed to convince quarterback Justin Fields, the 11th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, to play effectively, while failing to protect him from the start. Fields has the highest pressure rate (46.2%) and highest sack rate (12.4%) among 38 qualified quarterbacks since 2021.
Justin Fields’ NFL career rankings as of 2021
|
PCT Comp |
60.3% |
35th |
|
PCT bag |
12.4% |
Last |
|
Pct under pressure |
46.2% |
Last |
|
INT Pct |
3.1% |
37th |
* Out of 38 qualified QBs in span
Here’s a quick breakdown of what’s in store for potential candidates for each of the currently vacant head coaching positions.
NFL Hires and Firings
|
Carolina Panthers |
Frank Reich |
Bryce Young’s 5.5 yards per pass attempt in 2023 ranks fourth-worst in NFL history with a minimum of 500 pass attempts. He also ranked last in the NFL in passer rating (73.7) during his rookie year. Whoever accepts this position needs a contractual guarantee from owner David Tepper for at least a few years. They have had six different head coaches in six seasons under Tepper. The franchise had four in its first 23 seasons. |
|
|
Las Vegas Raiders |
Josh McDaniels |
Whoever takes this job has building blocks on both sides of the ball with All-Pro Davante Adams and Pro Bowl defender Maxx Crosby. However, the quarterback of the future likely isn’t on the roster, and the AFC West will go through Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for the foreseeable future. |
|
|
Los Angeles Chargers |
Brandon Staley |
The Chargers are the rare team with a coaching vacancy whose franchise quarterback is Justin Herbert. The problem is that much of the roster is injury-prone and/or expensive. Pro Bowl defensive end Joey Bosa hasn’t been able to put up double-digit games in each of the last two seasons. Receiver Mike Williams suffered a torn ACL three games in 2023. Center Corey Linsley has suffered numerous injuries since becoming a Charger. Los Angeles is projected to be approximately $35 million over the salary cap in 2024, which would require them to renew their roster as soon as possible. Like the Raiders, they also have a problem with the Chiefs. |
|
| Atlanta Falcons | Arthur Smith | The Falcons are pretty well stocked in terms of offensive personnel, except for their glaring hole at quarterback where Desmond Ridder is clearly not the answer. They could use some receiver depth behind Drake London, but a trio of London, Robinson and Pitts is a good place to start. Improvements along their aging front seven would help, but their secondary has two solid contributors in safety Jessie Bates III and cornerback AJ Terrell. The team has money to spend ($34.1 million in cap space) and draft capital through the first five rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft, starting with the eighth overall pick. | |
| Washington Commanders | Ron Rivera | Rivera keeping his job seemed like a long shot with the new ownership group coming on board and likely wanting to put their own stamp on things. As the season progressed, Rivera didn’t give them much reason to stay as they finished with one of the worst records in the league and arguably the worst defense in the NFL. As for the job itself, there are some intriguing pieces on the roster and the Commanders have the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which could mean a possible franchise quarterback like Drake Maye of the UNC. Washington is also expected to have over $78 million in cap space, which is currently the most in the NFL. |
