There are less than 10 days left until the NFL kicks off the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit, and one thing is pretty sure: USC quarterback Caleb Williams will win the Heisman Trophy 2022 and who is the only college quarterback in the 21st century to throw for 30 or more touchdowns and run for 10 or more touchdowns while throwing five or fewer interceptions in multiple seasons, will be the Chicago Bears’ first overall pick .
Caesars Sportsbook’s odds on Williams being in the next draft are -10,000, implying a 99.9% chance that he will be the first to shake Commissioner Roger Goodell’s hand on April 25. After Williams leaves Chicago, the draft becomes interesting with the quarterback in need. The Washington Commanders own the second overall pick and the quarterback-starved New England Patriots control the third overall pick.
LSU’s Jayden Daniels, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner who set the college football single-season passing efficiency record (208.0), is favored to go to the Commanders at -275 odds while Drake Maye from North Carolina, the only player in college football with more than 7,000 passes. yards (7,929) and over 1,000 rushing yards (1,247) demonstrated over the past few seasons, has the second highest probability of being the second player to come off the board at +200. If you’re an NFL fan who doesn’t watch much, if any, college football, you might be thinking, “well, those odds seem about right.”
However, according to Caesars Sportsbook, Daniels has a 73.3% chance of finishing second overall behind the Commanders, which doesn’t really fit his and Maye’s resume. Here’s why Maye should be the second quarterback drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Biographical/college context
Daniels played five seasons of college football from 2019 to 2023, the first three at Arizona State and the last two with LSU, so he will be 24 years old in his rookie season in December. Maye played three seasons at North Carolina and will turn 22 at the end of August, just before the start of the 2024 season.
The Heisman Trophy winner put up massive numbers in his two seasons, as did Maye, but recognizing the offensive ecosystems in which both passers did so is essential to that evaluation.
Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye since 2022
|
PCT Comp |
70.2% |
64.9% |
|
Passages |
6,725 |
7,929 |
|
Passing Yards/Att |
9.4 |
8.4 |
|
Pass TD-INT |
57-7 |
62-16 |
|
Assessing the effectiveness of successes |
173.6 |
153.9 |
|
Door |
321 |
296 |
|
Cutting-edge construction sites |
2,019 |
1,147 |
|
Rush TD |
21 |
26 |
Daniels broke records at LSU for single-season passer efficiency mark and led the nation in total yards (412.2) and total touchdowns per game (4.2) in 2023, throwing to two receivers who will almost certainly be selected in the first round of 2024. NFL Draft: Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.
Maye threw two receivers during his time at North Carolina, the Indianapolis Colts’ Josh Downs – a third-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft – and Tez Walker – who could be a third-round pick in 2024 – , who are worth at least a Day 2 NFL Draft pick. Maye spent only eight games with Walker in 2023, as litigation with the NCAA caused him to miss the first four games of 2023. The degree of The difficulty Maye faced on Saturday over the past two years was much higher than that of Daniels, who was able to throw it deep to two of the best receivers in college football over the past two seasons. Maye was forced to carry the load on the ground for the Tar Heels in 2022, leading the team with 698 rushing yards on 184 carries.
Their offensive line support has also varied significantly since 2022. LSU’s offensive line has allowed quarterback pressure on 25.8% of dropbacks over the past two seasons, the 12th lowest rate in the country. On the other hand, North Carolina’s offensive front has surrendered pressure on 34.1 percent of dropbacks during the same span, which ranks 92nd out of 133 FBS teams.
Stature-wise, Maye (6-foot-4, while weighing 223 pounds at age 21) has the advantage over Daniels (6-4, while weighing 210 pounds at age 23). Maye has the typical size and build that NFL teams look for in a quarterback with a cannon for an arm. He was the only quarterback in college football to total more than 9,000 offensive yards over the past two seasons, despite a smaller supporting cast.
There are some concerns regarding Daniels’ construction. LSU has Daniels’ weight listed in the 180s during the 2023 season, and although he has stepped up his training for the NFL this offseason, it is unclear if he will maintain the 210 pounds as his playing weight in the league given its slim profile and limited growth potential. he’s about to reach his mid-twenties. What’s even more concerning about the setting is its propensity to take massive hits to the level of Looney Tunes, as evidenced in the clips below.
Handling pressure
Speaking of hits, one of the main ways to measure a quarterback’s effectiveness is how often he goes from pressure to sack. What made recent all-time greats like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning great was their refusal to take sacks. This is something Daniels struggles with: His pressure-to-sack rate, that is, how often passers crossing the line turn into sacks, was 26.7% in 2023, ranking eighth in the league’s incoming quarterback class according to SumerSports.
Conversely, Maye’s pressure to fire rate compared to last season was significantly lower at 18.4%, good for third best in the class of incoming quarterbacks. One of the reasons for Daniels’ problems is his avoidance of the midfield, which is both surprising and alarming.
Press the easy button, that is, throw to the middle of the field
Moving to the middle of the field illustrates several things about a quarterback: his ability to process what the defense is doing at high speed, ball placement, and a quarterback’s touch -i.e. say the ability to open targets and lead. them a few meters after capture.
Daniels has attempted throws over the middle on 50.6 percent of intermediate routes, throws from 10 to 22 air yards, while at LSU since 2022, which ranks 71st out of 109 qualified quarterbacks during that span. Maye’s attempt rate on such throws was 57%, 30th in the nation over the same period. The Tar Heels quarterback has accumulated 149 completions on intermediate throws over the middle since 2022, the second most in the country behind only 2023 Heisman Trophy finalist and Washington Huskies quarterback MIchael Penix Jr.’s 160. Daniels’ 104 completions since 2022 ranked 23rd in the country.
It’s odd to see Daniels using the middle at a significantly lower level given his experience (55 collegiate starts) and the aforementioned weapons and offensive line support he had with LSU. Being unable to consistently threaten a defense over the middle on intermediate throws as a quarterback allows defenders to take away deep shots downfield and throws to the sideline, severely limiting the spacing required for an offense to consistently generate positive plays through the air. Daniels was able to operate this way in college thanks to Nabers and Thomas, but the talent gap on Sunday is on average smaller than on Saturday. Even more telling for Maye is the positive side that he was able to put up the second-most completions in the country since 2022 on those throws that are fundamental to an offense by constantly moving the chains for first downs, even with a lackluster offensive support system. .
Final verdict
Maye has the edge over Daniels in age, arm strength, sack avoidance and midfield command as an NFL quarterback prospect, even though he’s working with less at University. Daniels is a tantalizing player to watch and worthy of a first-round pick, but his frame, pressure to sack and inability to threaten defenses over the middle call into question how long he could play in the NFL.
