The concept of a “second round” quarterback, based on how we discuss and debate the position, is one of the most unique in “gig economics.” If a team needs a quarterback and thinks that quarterback can be their long-term starter, they should (and usually do) take that quarterback as early as possible in the first round.
And generally, if a team believes a quarterback is best suited to be a backup (and perhaps has some traits/abilities to potentially become a starter), they should make an effort to recruit him where they perform. Usually “important” saves: Day 3 of the draft, or sometimes late in the third round.
So, given the importance of the quarterback position, the idea of a second or third round quarterback, conceptually, doesn’t make much sense. Over the past decade, NFL teams have changed their minds on this very idea. And this could potentially have
real ramifications for players like Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler and many others, much like it did for Desmond Ridder and Malik Willis just a few seasons ago.
A change in team writing habits
Since the NFL rookie salary scale was implemented in 2011, teams no longer have to consider a player’s rookie contract in their decision-making, or at least as much as before . In 2010, the first overall pick (Sam Bradford) earned over 14 times as much as the first pick in the second round. In 2011, it was a little more than four times.
And since then, the financial risk of early first-round picks has diminished significantly, and the value of trying to find a starting quarterback in the second round or higher has diminished with that.
Below is a historical graph of the ratio of second-round picks to first-round picks since 2011:
In 2011, 0.50 means 50% of the number of second-round QBs drafted compared to first-round QBs. In 2013, 1.00 means the number of quarterbacks drafted in the first and second rounds was equal.
For one, only 12 quarterbacks have been drafted in the second round (on average one per year) since 2011. Additionally, of those, five were selected among the first five picks in the second round, meaning that they could very easily have been drafted. first round pick. As you can see from the trendline of the data, we have seen a substantial and consistent decline in the number of teams taking shifts in the second round.
And while a handful of players taken after early second-round picks were successful (notably Jalen Hurts and Jimmy Garoppolo), many were players who answered this conundrum well: If a quarterback has traits that a team may like it, but it doesn’t. If you don’t feel confident enough or trust him enough to be a franchise quarterback to take him in the first round, it’s probably not wise to take this quarterback in the second round (i.e. (i.e. Kyle Trask, Christian Hackenberg, DeShone Kizer and Brock Osweiler). And based on the data, the teams appear to have collectively learned from these mistakes.
And in the third round, the average quarterback draft pick is pick 82, sliding somewhere in the back half of the round.
With the quarterback position, the draft valuation is different than that of a receiver, lineman or defensive back. It’s a position that, if you draft as a top-100 pick, can shape how your locker room views your team’s prospects, both immediately and moving forward. It’s a position where, if it doesn’t work, you can’t just move that player to more special teams or a different role. It’s a position that if you can’t solve as a general manager, you won’t hold that title for very long.
And that’s the main reason why, as teams continue to value new age analytical and roster-building strategies, we’ve seen teams be more aggressive than ever in trading away the start of the first round for a quarterback and avoid the second or second round. third-round quarterback. Fortune favors the bold and, in the draft, the doomed, and teams no longer subscribe to the “we’ll try to get one later” strategy at the sport’s most important position.
For more coverage of the project, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on “With the first choice” — our all year round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find “With First Choice” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Youtubeetc. Listen below!
What does this mean for the 2024 NFL Draft class?
Most fake drafters are convinced that four quarterbacks fit that “potential franchise quarterback” mold and that all four should fall between picks 4-7 in the NFL Draft: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and JJ McCarthy.
After that, questions abound about how teams value Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., Oregon’s Bo Nix, South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and others. Right now, there are five teams whose roster construction most likely prepares them to draft a quarterback in the early rounds: Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota and Denver.
There are also teams, like the Raiders, Rams, Giants, Jets and Falcons, who may consider one in the first three or four rounds. But each of these five teams either has two quarterbacks with a contract/qualifications to compete for a starting job, and/or an undisputed starter for this season and beyond.
Teams set to select QB
Teams that might consider picking QB
Of the five teams likely to draft a quarterback early, four of them will likely grab him among the first picks in the draft. Leaving only one team, most likely one of the Patriots, Broncos or Vikings, the only one unable to get one of the expected top four quarterbacks. These teams are much more likely to consider a quarterback in the late third or fourth round rather than using a premium pick on a player who will likely be their third player as a rookie, unless they don’t. ‘like the quarterback so much that they “can’t.” believe”, he is there in the second round.
That’s not to say this next “tier” of quarterbacks doesn’t have NFL starting traits. Penix’s ball placement on the court is special. Nix’s experience and perimeter accuracy are hard to ignore. Rattler’s arm talent and fluidity give him one of the most exciting upsides in this class.
But based on this data and current NFL quarterback rooms, history indicates that perhaps we should expect, after the four quarterbacks selected early, perhaps as few as a quarterback -back between choices 33 and 80, then the rest following. This could mean, for example, that Penix slides to the second or even the start of the third round, and that Nix and Rattler slide to the end of the third or even the fourth round.
We talk a lot about the quarterback position, and it’s no surprise that these players, especially those with starting traits, tend to “rise” in discussions surrounding the draft. But ultimately, they play a position that unless teams feel you are a potential franchise quarterback, you are likely relegated to a backup role and, therefore, a position in the draft where replacements are drafted.
And for some of the favorites among the media covering the NFL Draft, this could lead to at least one surprising quarterback name slipping into the draft on Friday and/or Saturday of draft weekend.
The 2024 NFL Draft will take place April 25-27 in Detroit. More coverage of the draft can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft ordinancemock drafts and one available regularly look at eligible prospects.
