If we learned one thing from Week 10, it’s that the picture of the NFL playoffs can change in an instant. The Bills, Saints and Ravens all found out the hard way on Sunday for very different reasons.
Does losing your starting quarter hurt you in our playoff screenings? How far do you fall when you lose a game you were meant to win like the Ravens did? Does our computer even care if you lose on a game by chance like a Hail Mary?
We’ll answer all of these questions in our weekly playoff screening. The projections here are based on data from SportsLine.com’s number-cruncher Stephen Oh. Basically Oh plugged a few numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the NFL season, and using those numbers, we’re going to let you know about the playoff odds for all 32 teams, as well as the field. scheduled for the 14-team playoffs. .
With that in mind, let’s move on to this week’s playoff screenings. In fact, before you do that, here’s a simulation project that fans of the Jets, Jaguars, Chargers, Bengals, Broncos, Texans, Falcons, and Panthers might want to read. Since the computer thinks these teams basically have a zero percent chance of making the playoffs, this simulation will likely be a lot more exciting than this screening.
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Note: Keep in mind that this is a projection based on how we think the rest of the regular season will go. If you want to see the current playoff standings, be sure to click here.
With that in mind, let’s move on to projections.
Screening of the AFC qualifiers
First team out: Raiders (56.5% chance of making the playoffs)
Note: The first team to come out could end up making the playoffs. The NFL has approved a proposal that will expand the playoffs to 16 teams, but that will only happen if COVID-19 causes the cancellation of several regular season games that affect who might make the playoffs.
Here’s a list of playoff odds for all other AFC teams (their playoff odds percentage is listed next to them in parentheses): Browns (43.3%), Patriots (13.3%), Chargers (0.2%), Broncos (0.2%), Texans (0.1%), Bengals (0.1%), Jaguars ( 0.0%), Jets (0.0%).
Note II: The Jets and Jaguars weren’t eliminated from playoff competition, but they have a zero percent chance of succeeding because the computer hates them. In fact, the computer neither likes nor hates, it doesn’t have feelings, it just doesn’t think there is a mathematical chance for either team to be successful.
NFC Playoff Projection
First team out: Bear (27.5% chance of making the playoffs)
Note: The first team to come out could end up making the playoffs. The NFL has approved a proposal that will expand the playoffs to 16 teams, but that will only happen if COVID-19 causes the cancellation of several regular season games in the final eight weeks of the season.
Here’s a list of playoff odds for all other NFC teams (their playoff odds percentage is shown next to them in parentheses): Vikings (22.1%), Giants (21.1%), Lions (9.7%), 49ers (4.9%), Cowboys (8.1%), Washington (6.5%), Falcons ( 0.9%), Panthers (0.3%)
Note: The Giants, Cowboys and Washington have a higher percentage than several other teams because their computer thinks they have a better chance of winning the NFC East than most other NFC teams of earning a prime spot.
Joker round projection
AFC
(7) Titans at (2) Chiefs
(6) Dolphins at (3) bills
(5) Ravens to (4) Colts
Goodbye: Steelers (Pittsburgh would host Las Vegas in 16-team playoff round)
NFC
(7) Cardinals at (2) Packers
(6) Seahawks to (3) Rams
(5) Buccaneers to (4) Eagles
Goodbye: Saints (New Orleans would host Chicago in wildcard round of 16-team playoff)