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COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. (KKTV) – State health officials are concerned about an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Colorado, which will cause hospitals to overflow from patients into intensive care rooms.

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) warns Colorado will likely pass April’s peak hospitalization within two weeks on the current “epidemic curve”.

“If the epidemic curve is not curved, Colorado could exceed the capacity of intensive care units (ICU) in January,” CDPHE wrote in a statement. “If contacts increase during the holidays (for example, due to gatherings between several households), the capacity of the ICU could be exceeded in December. As announced by the state last week, gatherings should be limited to a maximum of 10 people for a maximum of two households.

You can read the main conclusions of the report on which the CDPHE bases its projections at the bottom of this article.

The Colorado State Joint Information Center shared an update on 12 counties that will have more restrictions on Friday, based on the COVID-19 dial:

  • Douglas County to Switch to Safer at Home 2 on November 4
  • El Paso County to Switch to Safer at Home 2 on November 4
  • Otero County moved to Safer at Home 2 on October 30
  • Crowley County moved to House 2 more secure on October 30
  • Prowers County became safer at House 2 on October 30
  • On October 28, Adams County moved to Safer at Home 3
  • Arapahoe County moved to Safer at Home 2 on October 28
  • Denver County moved to Safer at Home 3 on October 28
  • La Plata County moved to Safer at Home 2 on October 26
  • Kit Carson switched to Safer at Home 2 on October 26
  • Mesa County moved to Safer at Home 1 on October 26.
  • Elbert County moved to Safer at Home 2 on October 24

In order to move from a more restrictive level to a less restrictive level, a county must meet and maintain the required parameters of the least restrictive level for two weeks.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS FROM A REPORT THE CDPHE USES FOR THEIR MODELING PROJECTIONS: (By CDPHE)

The latest modeling provides projections based on data from the COVID-19 Hospital Census through October 26, 2020. Models are based on Colorado data and assumptions based on the current state of science.

Main conclusions of the report:

  • Hospitalizations continue to increase rapidly. On the current trajectory of the epidemic curve, Colorado is likely to reach its highest number of hospitalizations from COVID-19 by November 10, and the limits of intensive care capacity could be reached from early to mid -January. If infections increase during the holidays due to gatherings and other reasons for increased contact between people, intensive care capacity could be exceeded in December.
  • The effective number of spawns is approximately 1.6 (with a statistical uncertainty ranging from 1.47 to 1.70 at the 95% confidence level).
  • About 1 in 219 coloradan is currently contagious (up from 1 in 292 last week). This implies that the probability of encountering an infected person in the population is higher than it was at any time this summer. This estimate is generated from the model and assumes that not all infected residents are captured by state surveillance systems.
  • The estimated level of transmission control is currently 65% ​​(for the period September 28 to October 13). Levels of transmission control below about 79% will result in an increase in infections and an effective reproduction number greater than 1; and if contact rates are reduced and transmission control is greater than 79%, infections will decrease.
  • Using an extended modeling approach based on case data, the modeling team estimates that the control of transmission varies considerably by age group, with significant decreases in control levels at all ages over the course of the period. last month. People aged 20 to 39 have the highest infectious contact rates (control of transmission = 60%), and contact rates have increased among people over 65 years of age in recent weeks (control of transmission transmission = 76%).

The Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) brought together the expert group that works with the state on projection modeling. The group includes modeling researchers from ColoradoSPH and the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, as well as experts from the University of Colorado at Boulder, the University of Colorado at Denver, and Colorado State University.

All previous modeling reports are available on the Colorado School of Public Health COVID-19 website.

The Colorado modeling team began using a new “transmission control” indicator in mid-October to describe the collective impact of all policies and behaviors on the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Transmission control captures ALL behavior and policy changes in response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, including mask wear, physical distancing, improved ventilation, working from home, contact tracing (including isolation and quarantine), outdoor travel activities and any seasonal impact. This approach has the advantage of requiring fewer assumptions and increasing the precision of the Colorado model. In technical terms, the transmission control parameter describes the percentage decrease in effective contact between infected and susceptible individuals compared to pre-pandemic behavior.

The state will continue to review data and model results as the pandemic continues to inform policy decisions.

Copyright 2020 KKTV. All rights reserved.

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